If UCLA had won the Battle of Los Angeles on Thursday, things would have been simple. The Bruins would have a stranglehold on the No. 1 overall seed while the other three No. 1 seeds would be fairly simple: the obvious (South Carolina), the surging (Texas) and the steady (Notre Dame).
However, that didn’t happen, and even if it makes my job more difficult, the world is better off for having seen JuJu Watkins put on one of the truly great performances in the sport’s history.
According to OptaSTATS, Watkins is the only NBA, WNBA or Division I men’s or women’s player this century with 35+ points, 10+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ blocks and 5+ made 3-pointers in a game.
Of course, she did so against the previously undefeated No. 1-ranked team in the country. And don’t short-change her — she had 38 points, 11 rebounds and eight blocks.
Watkins had a dominant start to the game and kept USC afloat during the second and third quarters, where no other Trojans made a single field goal attempt.
Finally, she spearheaded a 16-4 closing run, scoring or assisting on 11 points in a two-minute span. It was a true masterclass from the sophomore who is already cementing her spot as an all-time great.
USC shocks top-ranked UCLA: JuJu Watkins delivers signature performance as Trojans rise to first in Big Ten
Isabel Gonzalez
For USC, it was its second win against the AP No. 1 team in school history, following the 1983 national championship against Louisiana Tech. Cheryl Miller was that game’s leading scorer, and she was in attendance Thursday.
However, by the narrowest of margins, USC is still the fifth overall team in my latest projections, just behind Notre Dame. With the selection committee’s first Top 16 reveal taking place Sunday, now’s a good time to review the pros and cons to each team in the closest No. 1 seed race I can remember.
No. 1 seeds
UCLA (23-1, 11-1 Big Ten): NET 5, SOS 15
UCLA remains the top team for now off the strength of its eight Quad-1 victories, signature win over South Carolina and “one” in the loss column. But all of the other current No. 1 seeds have a better grouping of top wins, meaning the Bruins’ margin of error has gone away.
Another slip-up, perhaps Sunday against a ranked Michigan State team, and UCLA could find itself dropping off the top line entirely.
*South Carolina (23-2, 11-1 SEC): NET 1, SOS 1
On Sunday, South Carolina saw its SEC-record 57-game conference win streak come to an end against Texas in Austin. The two teams split the regular season and are tied atop Division I with 10 Quad-1 wins.
For now, South Carolina is a clear top seed with the nation’s toughest strength of schedule. Dawn Staley’s team can strengthen its position this weekend against UConn or begin to risk its first non-No. 1 seed since 2019.
Texas (25-2, 11-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 2
Just a hair behind South Carolina due to the strength of the Gamecocks’ top wins, Texas has gone from No. 1 seed hopeful to a team with a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if it can beat LSU on Sunday.
The Longhorns’ two losses are to fellow No. 1 seeds South Carolina and Notre Dame, and Texas boasts eight wins over the NET top 25, including Thursday’s road victory against AP No. 8 Kentucky.
*Notre Dame (22-2, 13-0 ACC): NET 4, SOS 13
The Irish’s trio of wins against Texas, USC and UConn still beats that of anyone in the country, but lately, Notre Dame’s schedule hasn’t given it the same opportunities as SEC and Big Ten teams to continue adding quality victories.
That will change this week against Duke, and Niele Ivey’s team must keep its foot on the gas pedal to remain in position for a top seed because as of right now, the head-to-head win over USC is making all the difference.
No. 2 seeds
*USC (22-2, 12-1 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 8
USC and Notre Dame each have four wins against teams in the top half of Quad-1 and a comparable worst loss (Utah for Notre Dame and Iowa for USC) a bit weaker than that of the other top teams.
The Irish get the edge for now, but the Trojans control their own destiny. If it can finish the regular season undefeated (which would include a second win against UCLA), USC would be above UCLA at a bare minimum.
LSU (25-1, 10-1 SEC): NET 10, SOS 56
Still the dark horse in the No. 1 seed conversation, LSU has just one loss, although it did get a bit weaker after South Carolina dropped a second game this season. LSU is held down by its five Quad-1 wins and 202nd-ranked non-conference strength of schedule.
However, a win against Texas on Sunday would see the Tigers immediately vault to the No. 1 line. The margins are truly so tight that any loss by these six teams has major ramifications.
*UConn (23-3, 14-0 Big East): NET 2, SOS 40
Unfortunately for UConn, apart from total chaos above, they can only play spoiler. A win against South Carolina would not move the Huskies to the No. 1 line. Frankly, it still wouldn’t be particularly close. For now, UConn is the best team in Tier 2.
*Kansas State (23-3, 11-2 Big 12): NET 7, SOS 73
After getting throttled by 30 points at Oklahoma State, Kansas State rebounded with a 37-point win at Cincinnati. Still, the Wildcats have lost their last two road games against NCAA Tournament teams, making Monday’s game at West Virginia an important matchup.
The Mountaineers are one of this season’s more curious resumes. Currently the top projected No. 9 seed, they rank No. 13 in the NET but have no Quad-1 wins and just a 2-5 record in Quads 1-2.
No. 3 seeds
TCU (23-3, 11-2 Big 12): NET 9, SOS 55
It was a fairly comfortable week for TCU, which will embark on the Grand Canyon State road tour for games at Arizona and Arizona State.
A No. 2 seed is still clearly in play for the Horned Frogs, but with just two Quad-1 opportunities left on the schedule (vs. West Virginia, at Baylor) and a pair of games (at Arizona State, vs. Houston) that won’t move any needles, it might require perfection to get there.
Duke (20-5, 11-2 ACC): NET 8, SOS 11
Duke would jump to the No. 2 line with a win at Notre Dame, but that’s far easier said than done, although the Blue Devils have won three of the last four meetings in the series.
Only South Carolina (17) and Texas (16) have more wins against NET top-100 teams than Duke (14). If not for a December loss at South Florida, Duke would already be a No. 2 seed.
Ohio State (21-3, 10-3 Big Ten): NET 15, SOS 44
Following understandable losses at UCLA and USC, the Buckeyes needed overtime to defeat Minnesota after blowing an 11-point lead in the final 1:16 of regulation. But games don’t need to be pretty as long as they end in wins.
Clearly the Big Ten’s third-best team at this juncture, Ohio State will now face a surging Iowa team coming off six straight wins, including against USC.
North Carolina (22-4, 10-3 ACC): NET 14, SOS 35
Sunday’s matchup between UNC and NC State pits state and conference rivals against each other. The schools are next to each other in these projections and neither has lost a game outside of Quad-1 this season.
North Carolina is seeking an 11th win in ACC play, which would match its total from each of the previous two seasons with four games to spare.
No. 4 seeds
NC State (20-4, 12-1 ACC): NET 19, SOS 26
With just a single loss at California, NC State has sole possession of second place in the ACC standings ahead of three straight ranked matchups with UNC, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame.
It’s the kind of stretch that could see Wes Moore’s team surge as high as No. 2 seed contention or fall out of hosting territory entirely. Winners of nine straight, the Wolfpack need to stay locked in for this season-defining stretch.
Kentucky (19-4, 8-3 SEC): NET 20, SOS 28
After reaching No. 8 in the AP Poll (the team’s best ranking since the 2015-16 season), Kentucky dropped back-to-back games for the first time this season.
Texas’ size was an issue in a 67-49 home loss that saw the team’s starting center and second-leading scorer Clara Strack foul out while attempting just one shot. The Longhorns grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and outscored Kentucky 42-24 in the paint.
Oklahoma State (20-4, 10-3 Big 12): NET 24, SOS 64
The Cowgirls are a conundrum. They’ve beaten all three teams currently tied atop the Big 12 standings (Kansas State, TCU, Baylor) but are also responsible for Houston’s only win in conference play.
With only unranked teams left on the schedule, Oklahoma State has a favorable path to a hosting position but will need to remain consistent.
Alabama (20-5, 7-4 SEC): NET 17, SOS 30
If Alabama’s current projection as a No. 4 seed holds, it would be the school’s highest NCAA Tournament seed since the 1997-98 season. Last Sunday’s 80-60 win at Mississippi State clinched a fourth straight 20-win year for Kristy Curry’s team.
Leading the way is a stout 3-point shooting attack. At 38.4% this season, the Tide rank fifth in Division I.
No. 5 seeds
Tennessee (18-6, 5-6 SEC): NET 11, SOS 4
Maryland (19-6, 9-5 Big Ten): NET 28, SOS 10
Michigan State (19-5, 9-4 Big Ten): NET 21, SOS 52
Oklahoma (18-6, 6-5 SEC): NET 16, SOS 6
No. 6 seeds
Utah (19-5, 10-3 Big 12): NET 23, SOS 47
Creighton (20-4, 12-1 Big East): NET 32, SOS 69
Ole Miss (17-7, 8-4 SEC): NET 12, SOS 14
California (20-6, 8-5 ACC): NET 39, SOS 42
No. 7 seeds
Iowa (18-7, 8-6 Big Ten): NET 29, SOS 22
Georgia Tech (20-5, 8-5 ACC): NET 26, SOS 62
Baylor (21-5, 11-2 Big 12): NET 18, SOS 72
Michigan (18-7, 9-5 Big Ten): NET 25, SOS 16
No. 8 seeds
Illinois (20-5, 10-4 Big Ten): NET 33, SOS 60
Louisville (18-7, 11-3 ACC): NET 41, SOS 18
Florida State (19-6, 9-4 ACC): NET 27, SOS 68
Vanderbilt (18-7, 5-6 SEC): NET 22, SOS 29
No. 9 seeds
West Virginia (19-5, 9-4 Big 12): NET 13, SOS 78
Oregon (17-8, 8-6 Big Ten): NET 40, SOS 12
Mississippi State (18-8, 5-7 SEC): NET 34, SOS 23
*Richmond (21-5, 12-1 Atlantic 10): NET 30, SOS 81
No. 10 seeds
Indiana (15-9, 7-6 Big Ten): NET 38, SOS 9
Nebraska (17-8, 8-6 Big Ten): NET 36, SOS 19
*South Dakota State (22-3, 12-0 Summit): NET 44, SOS 83
*Columbia (17-4, 8-0 Ivy): NET 43, SOS 86
No. 11 seeds
Harvard (17-3, 6-2 Ivy): NET 35, SOS 156
Iowa State (17-9, 8-5 Big 12): NET 37, SOS 32
Colorado (16-8, 7-6 Big 12): NET 65, SOS 48
Minnesota (19-7, 7-7 Big Ten): NET 31, SOS 65
Princeton (16-5, 7-1 Ivy): NET 46, SOS 97
*James Madison (22-4, 13-0 Sun Belt): NET 53, SOS 94
No. 12 seeds
*Ball State (19-5, 11-0 MAC): NET 56, SOS 95
*UNLV (20-5, 12-1 MWC): NET 49, SOS 161
*Fairfield (20-3, 14-0 MAAC): NET 47, SOS 212
*Montana State (23-2, 13-0 Big Sky): NET 54, SOS 230
No. 13 seeds
*Grand Canyon (23-2, 10-0 WAC): NET 63, SOS 252
*Belmont (16-8, 11-2 MVC): NET 55, SOS 70
*Middle Tennessee (18-6, 10-1 CUSA): NET 51, SOS 101
*Florida Gulf Coast (22-3, 13-0 ASUN): NET 62, SOS 298
No. 14 seeds
*UTSA (21-3, 12-1 AAC): NET 72, SOS 277
*Portland (23-3, 12-3 WCC): NET 74, SOS 348
*Southeast Louisiana (21-3, 15-0 Southland): NET 89, SOS 302
*Norfolk State (20-4, 7-0 MEAC): NET 97, SOS 127
No. 15 seeds
*Purdue Fort Wayne (20-5, 15-0 Horizon): NET 92, SOS 308
*Lehigh (20-4, 11-1 Patriot): NET 91, SOS 314
*Albany (20-5, 10-2 America East): NET 120, SOS 275
*Hawai’i (18-6, 12-2 Big West): NET 131, SOS 267
No. 16 seeds
*Fairleigh Dickinson (20-3, 10-0 NEC): NET 176, SOS 276
*Tennessee Tech (19-5, 13-2 OVC): NET 136, SOS 319
*UNC Greensboro (18-6, 9-1 SoCon): NET 156, SOS 238
*North Carolina A&T (13-9, 9-2 CAA): NET 152, SOS 229
*High Point (14-11, 9-3 Big South): NET 210, SOS 312
*Texas Southern (12-11, 11-1 SWAC): NET 272, SOS 159
Last Four In
Iowa State (17-9, 8-5 Big 12): NET 37, SOS 32
Colorado (16-8, 7-6 Big 12): NET 65, SOS 48
Minnesota (19-7, 7-7 Big Ten): NET 31, SOS 65
Princeton (16-5, 7-1 Ivy): NET 46, SOS 97
First Four Out
George Mason (22-3, 12-2 Atlantic 10): NET 42, SOS 186
Saint Joseph’s (20-5, 11-3 Atlantic 10): NET 50, SOS 140
Virginia Tech (16-9, 7-7 ACC): NET 45, SOS 38
Seton Hall (17-7, 9-4 Big East): NET 69, SOS 75
