Week 1 is in the books after five straight days of college football, and soon we will have new AP Top 25 rankings for the first time in nearly a month. Everyone has had time to challenge those preseason expectations with more information from fall camp, but most importantly, we have first impressions from opening weekend. Some years, this leads to big shake-ups in the post-Week 1 update of the AP Top 25 poll. But while there are some notable moves both up and down within the top 25, the lack of updates and number of lopsided scores are not giving voters a ton of reasons to change up their ballots.
The top nine teams in the AP poll went 9-0 and had an average margin of victory of +36.7 points. Those teams also allowed just five touchdowns combined — two of which came in Oregon’s head-scratching 24-14 win against FCS Idaho. For the most part, the best teams in the country not only won, but dominated, as the top 25 saw just one team (Florida State) lose to an unranked opponent.
But it is in those ranked-on-ranked matchups that we get data points that can move some of the rankings around in an otherwise chalky week. Losses for Clemson and Texas A&M open up further down in the poll, and USC is set to make a big jump after knocking off LSU in Las Vegas. Even in some of the wins against unranked squads there are opportunities for teams to improve their stock, like a Miami squad that looked every bit the part of an ACC favorite in a thorough dismantling of in-state rival Florida.
Now that the voters’ preseason expectations have been put to the test with actual results, here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will look on Tuesday.
1. Georgia (Previous week — 1): Look for the Bulldogs to only strengthen their position at No. 1 after wearing down Clemson in a 31-point win. Georgia was the only team in the top five to play a power conference opponent and was able to flex its muscles on a big stage in the early window on Saturday.
2. Ohio State (2): I would not be surprised if one or two voters switch their Ohio State first-place vote to Georgia as a reaction to the Buckeyes’ slow start offensively, but a 52-6 final score will do just fine to keep the consensus opinion strong. The very top tier of the rankings is really a top two, and I think this week’s voting points will continue to reflect that view.
3. Texas (4): There were just 17 voting points separating Texas from Oregon in the preseason rankings (1,403 to 1,386), and I think that’s a gap that can be closed given how different their results will look on the scoreboard to top 25 voters. The Longhorns shut out Colorado State 52-0 and had the game put away in time for Arch Manning to get some highlights, while the Ducks were still tight with Idaho late in the game in what was eventually a 24-14 win.
4. Oregon (3): Maybe the Ducks will retain their single first-place vote from the preseason rankings (courtesy of the Action Network’s Brett McMurphy), but we’re mostly looking at the potential for some movement based on the 37 voters who had Oregon locked in at the No. 3 spot. There’s nothing coming out of the Idaho win to suggest a move up, but falling a spot or two on a dozen ballots is definitely possible. That’s all that’s needed for a 3-4 swap.
5. Notre Dame (7): When you consider both the opponent and setting, Notre Dame had one of the best wins of the entire week taking down Texas A&M in College Station. More than half of the AP voters actually had the Fighting Irish lower than No. 7 on their preseason ballots — including about 11% of voters ranking them outside the top 10 — and I don’t see how you look at Saturday night’s performance and make some adjustments. There’s a ton of room for moving up, but while other teams had blowout wins against lesser competition, Notre Dame showed it was worthy of knocking on the door of the top five.
6. Alabama (5): No major change for Alabama after a 63-0 win against Western Kentucky that highlighted the Kalen DeBoer impact with an offensive performances highlighted by everything from five touchdowns for Jalen Milroe to a breakout game for true freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams, who had a team-high 139 receiving yards and two scores.
7. Ole Miss (6): While some top teams are learning about themselves here in the opening weeks of the season, Ole Miss seems to know what to do and how to do it, particularly on offense. Jaxson Dart throwing six total touchdowns in a single half and then going on to boast about how the offense has “monsters” all over the field displays the self-confidence that’s surging from the Rebels’ star quarterback and throughout this team.
8. Penn State (8): The Nittany Lions are another team that seemed to have a better handle on their identity at this early stage in the season than most top teams. Penn State put West Virginia in a double-digit hole early, eliminating some of the home crowd edge in Morgantown and then built on that lead both before and after a lengthy weather delay. For a team that is breaking in yet another new offensive coordinator, the Nittany Lions looked remarkably comfortable. If they can continue to generate explosive plays, Penn State will be a factor in the Big Ten title race.
9. Michigan (9): The Wolverines had one of the widest splits in ranking among top teams, landing anywhere from No. 5 to No. 21 on the voters’ ballots. I doubt Saturday’s 30-10 win against Fresno State will do much to change the extreme variance, as you can really make what you want out of a result that did showcase the Wolverines’ defensive dominance but also expose a work-in-progress on offense.
10. Missouri (11): Might Missouri jump Michigan? That’s the key question for AP voters who, as we mentioned earlier, have varied beliefs in terms of where the reigning champs stand against other top teams. As for Missouri, the Tigers were already in the top 10 on 30 of the 62 ballots in the preseason voting, so a bump up into Florida State’s old spot seems like the bare minimum for movement after a sweat-free 51-0 win against Murray State.
11. Utah (12): The return of quarterback Cam Rising and a host of other key contributors who dealt with injuries last year made a 49-0 trouncing of Southern Utah noteworthy. The Utes won’t get a ton of poll or rankings pop off the win, but for those invested in Utah’s big-picture goals (Big 12 title, College Football Playoff), it was encouraging to see Kyle Whittingham’s group healthy again and operating at a high level.
12. USC (23): The way the voting was tiered out in the preseason poll, there was a big jump from Utah down to LSU at No. 13 and an even bigger jump from the Tigers to Clemson at No. 14. That seems like a sensible spot where voters will pencil in the teams set to make big jumps, and we’re projecting USC to make the biggest jump thanks to the quality and ranking of the opponent. That the Trojans answered questions from their biggest doubters (22 voters did not even have USC on their ballot) and also logged a ranked win should catapult Lincoln Riley’s group up into the top 15.
13. Miami (19): The Hurricanes have the quality of a top-10 team, and even in the preseason poll there were a half-dozen voters who ranked them there, but actually cracking the top 10 might not happen this week. There’s a bit of a traffic jam issue in the poll, where voters are not likely to start moving teams down without losses and many top teams are playing inferior competition. Still, you’re going to see a surge of support from those voters who were low on Miami changing their tune after a dominant win against Florida in The Swamp.
14. Tennessee (15): No major changes for the Vols after a 69-3 win against Chattanooga. Fans were pleased to see another terrific showing from quarterback Nico Iamaleava and a defensive line that could be a real force in 2024, but voters aren’t going adjust their ranking of Tennessee in a major way until after Week 2’s showdown with NC State in Charlotte.
15. Oklahoma (16): It’s hard to take too much away from Oklahoma’s 51-3 thumping of Temple as the Owls turned the ball over three times in the first 20 minutes of the game and the Sooners were able to race out to an early lead that never left the result in doubt. Jackson Arnold threw for four touchdowns and was a factor in the run game, and new wide receiver Deion Burks was on the receiving end of three of those scores. But voters will jsee the score and keep the Sooners in the same general position from last week.
16. Oklahoma State (17): The Cowboys didn’t play your ordinary FCS opponent; South Dakota State is the reigning national champion and ranked No. 1 in the preseason FSC poll. Beating the Jackrabbits by 24 should inspire confidence in Oklahoma State’s chances to hang with the best teams in the Big 12, which is what this ranking suggests.
17. Kansas State (18): This is already a team that has a lower rankings ceiling at the moment — only three of 62 voters had the Wildcats higher than No. 14 on their preseason ballot — and a 41-6 win against UT Martin is not going to be the result that starts to raise that ceiling.
18. LSU (13): As Brian Kelly said prior to his table punch after the game, LSU played well enough to win on Sunday night against USC, but penalties and red-zone woes cost the Tigers multiple scores. There will be a rankings drop — as 0-1 looks unbecoming for a top-15 team in the eyes of voters — but there should be a high floor given where LSU started.
19. Arizona (21): While the Wildcats are definitely due for a slight bump up in the rankings after closing out Saturday night with a 61-39 win against New Mexico, not even a historic showing from Tetairoa McMillan (10 catches, 304 yards, four touchdowns) will spark a jump ahead of other 1-0 teams in the pecking order.
20. Kansas (22): No major changes for the Jayhawks after they broke in their temporary residence in Kansas City with a 48-3 win against FCS Lindenwood. It’s one of two games Kansas will play at the home of Sporting Kansas City from the MLS, then moving to the Kansas City Chief’s Arrowhead Stadium for home games in conference play.
21. Iowa (25): Quite a debut for the new-look Iowa offense; the Hawkeyes had as many touchdown receptions by wide receivers (three) in their 40-0 win against Illinois State as they did the entire 2023 season. That’s the kind of news that will solidify Iowa’s position in the top 25 after 30 of the 62 voters did not even have the Hawkeyes on their ballot in the preseason poll.
22. Louisville (NR): The preseason poll had Louisville just a couple more ballots away from having a real shot at cracking the rankings, finishing closer in voting to points to No. 25 Iowa than the Hawkeyes were to No. 24 NC State. Shake up among teams in the 20s has opened the door for the Cardinals, who handled business in a 62-0 win against Austin Peay.
23. NC State (24): The Wolfpack did not have consensus support across the AP voters in the preseason balloting, failing to show up on 23 of the 62 ballots, and didn’t do much to sway those lower opinions in a 38-21 win against Western Carolina on Thursday. Dave Doeren’s squad closed strong with 21 unanswered points to put the game away, but now there’s more pressure on the Week 2 matchup against Tennessee when it comes to NC State’s perception in the eyes of the voters.
24, Boise State (NR): Not only did Boise State finish 28th in voting points in the preseason poll, but the Broncos found themselves getting a bit more national attention in Week 1 thanks to star running back Ashton Jeanty. The 2023 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year matched a conference record with six rushing touchdowns and set a new school record with 267 rushing yards in Boise State’s 56-45 win at Georgia Southern.
25. Clemson (14): In 2022, Oregon started the year at No. 12 and then fell all the way out of the top 25 following a 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener. It’s possible the Tigers face a similar fate following their 34-3 defeat on Saturday, but without too many obvious options to make a big jump up in voting points (Boise State or Iowa State are candidates based on the preseason balloting, with Vanderbilt as a possible dark horse) our projection is that in the consensus Clemson stays inside the top 25.
Projected to drop out: No. 10 Florida State, No. 20 Texas A&M
