While recent playoff expansion and the 16-team extravaganza in 2020 certainly skewed things, would you believe the Detroit Tigers are tied for the longest playoff drought in baseball? It’s the Tigers and Angels, both of which were in the 2014 postseason, tied for the dubious distinction.
The 2014 Tigers had won the AL Central for the fourth straight season, a stretch during which the star-laden franchise had seen the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. among others. The group went to three straight ALCS and won the 2012 pennant, but never took the World Series title. The Tigers haven’t won it all since 1984 and that’s long enough to call it a drought (five teams have never won it all, but among teams that have, only the Guardians, the Pirates and Orioles have gone longer without winning another).
How soon can the Tigers look to quench the thirst of the fan base and start flying flags again? Let’s dive in.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 78-84 (second place in AL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 81.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +6000
Projected lineup
- Parker Meadows, CF
- Riley Greene, RF
- Spencer Torkelson, 1B
- Kerry Carpenter, DH
- Mark Canha, LF
- Colt Keith, 2B
- Javier Báez, SS
- Gio Urshela, 3B
- Jake Rogers, C
The Tigers won’t have an everyday lineup, really. Everything here is fluid except probably Greene and Torkelson. Backup catcher Carson Kelly will play plenty, as will utility backups Andy Ibáñez, Matt Vierling and Zach McKinstry. Akil Baddoo is likely ticketed for Triple-A, but he could be back at some point.
Projected rotation
- LHP Tarik Skubal
- RHP Jack Flaherty
- RHP Kenta Maeda
- RHP Matt Manning
- RHP Reese Olson
Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize is returning from Tommy John surgery and will heavily factor in here, but the Tigers likely bring him along slowly early in the season.
Projected bullpen
Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo and Trey Wingenter are among the other names we’ll see this season out of the Tigers bullpen.
AL Central is winnable
Most projection systems have the Twins taking the AL Central again, but they didn’t put together a big offseason to capitalize on their playoff advancement last season and it could be argued they got worse. The Tigers are roughly five games behind the Twins in those projection systems and that’s within the margin of error – if you even believe in the accuracy of said systems. The Guardians and Royals are also teams with a realistic shot of taking the Central while the White Sox are atrocious. Even if the AL Central is baseball’s worst division – it is – a division title and playoff berth count all the same here.
The offense as a whole is likely to be a struggle, but there are some exciting pieces in there. The pitching staff is better and deeper than it has been in several years, both in the rotation and bullpen.
Growth from future foundation is key
If the Tigers fail to secure the Central, which is the most likely outcome here, good things can still happen this season. Let’s run through the most important big-leaguers for this year on an individual basis:
- Greene is only 23 years old and in 99 games last season, he hit .288/.349/.447 (117 OPS+). A full season breakout seems likely and he could well step into star territory.
- Torkelson was the No. 1 overall pick in 2020 and hit 31 homers in his first full season in the majors last year. With another year of growth, the average can come up, strikeouts can come down and power numbers can go even further up. The Greene/Torkelson combo can be the next great Tigers duo and an outstanding foundation around which to build a title contender. While we’re here: There have only been 11 individual 40-HR seasons in Tigers history from six different players. The most recent was Miguel Cabrera in 2013. Can you name the other five players? (full list here)
- Skubal’s 2022 season was ruined by an elbow injury and he returned last year from his surgery, looking like an ace down the stretch. He won’t hit free agency until after the 2026 season. Same with Mize, who is coming off Tommy John surgery. Manning is only 26, controlled through 2027 and looked pretty good overall last year. Olson showed very good flashes as a rookie last season, so it’s possible the Tigers have a nice rotation foundation.
- Keith’s bat can be special (for more, here’s CBS Sports prospect expert R.J. Anderson) and he’ll get an extended look at the big-league level this season, possibly starting on Opening Day after signing a six-year, $28.6425 million extension before his major-league debut. Any positives are a great sign for future contention, obviously.
- Carpenter will be 26 this season and Meadows is only 24. Carpenter is pretty well established as a future piece and Meadows can solidify his standing there this season.
That’s two players with the potential to be stars, or even superstars, a strong future top four in the rotation with two complementary position players who all could be around for the long haul. That’s a quality backbone, especially in a market like Detroit. Positive growth from these eight players this season, in addition to a good number of prospects, would really leave for a nice exit ramp toward future contenting seasons.
In and of itself, for a front office that has only been in place since Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations in September of 2022, that’s a positive season.
With the weak division, though …
What would make for a successful season?
Making the playoffs is the pick here. It would snap an ugly drought and lay the foundation for moving toward a chance to snap the World Series championship drought. Technically, any team in the playoffs can win it all, but I just don’t see a championship run on the table, even if the Tigers can win the Central. There are too many steps for what would likely be the worst team in the playoffs.
Especially given that the team hasn’t had a winning record since 2016 and lost 114 games in 2019 and then 96 in 2022, I’m not willing to call anything with a winning record a failure, but we’ll go with a division title as the goal.
