How do you explain the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs? Like, pretend an alien landed on Earth and your only job was to explain how this team, with a net point differential of just 56 — third in their own division — is sitting at 12-1 through 14 weeks of the NFL season … what would you say? I guess “Patrick Mahomes” would suffice, but the level of sorcery involved with the way this team has won games this year is pretty preposterous.
Start with Sunday night and the “Doink for the Division,” in which a third-string kicker blasted a chip shot off the left upright only to have it carom to the right and through the goalposts for a Kansas City division-clinching 19-17 win over the Chargers.
Their victory was the 10th — TENTH — one-score win of the season. And it’s not like they’re getting backdoored with big leads in these games. We had the Isaiah Likely toe-out-of-bounds game in Week 1, eyebrow-raising calls or non-calls versus the Bengals and Falcons in Weeks 2 and 3, the insane blocked field goal versus the Broncos, plus more nonsense from the Raiders after Thanksgiving, an overtime thievery against the Panthers a few weeks ago, Todd Bowles declining to go for two at the end of regulation in Week 9 … it’s a luck-filled laundry list of breaks the Chiefs have gotten all season to put them in position to steal the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
But I’m not here to tell you the Chiefs are fraudulent. No, sir. Wouldn’t dare think it. If anything, the Chiefs might just be inevitable. And I’m going to say something I’ve been saying all season long: it’s eerily reminiscent of the Patriots dynasty.
Kansas City is the two-time defending champion. The Chiefs are getting everyone’s best shot every single week. They come out wounded but rarely defeated. The Chiefs have dealt with tons of injuries too, from Rashee Rice out for the year to Isiah Pacheco missing significant time. Their primary skill guys for most of the season have been of the geriatric variety.
Teams routinely find ways to put themselves in position to beat Kansas City, only Patrick Mahomes does *something* — like the third-down conversion using his legs with a little flip to Travis Kelce last night. It’s just like Tom Brady in his prime. You’ve got great coaching from Andy Reid, just like with Bill Belichick when the Patriots were rolling. And you’ve got a quarterback who is simply just out-of-this-world clutch.
And just like the Patriots, the Chiefs keep stacking wins week after week after week. They didn’t look their best during the regular season last year, and it hardly mattered. Kelce and Mahomes elevated their performance during the postseason and when you’ve got a hot Chiefs offense coupled with a strong defense and a run game that can finish off teams in the second half, they’re a really difficult team to beat.
Even when Kansas City runs into a juggernaut from the other side of the bracket — hello, 49ers — they still have Mahomes there ready to make some plays, to pull off the impossible and find a way to win. It’s how something like 28-3 happens — a bulldozer Falcons team plays a perfect half against New England, and it’s all eradicated because, again, Tom Brady.
This regular-season version of the Chiefs is impossible to handicap. They should be -7 in every game, but the odds for betting on them should be like 5-1. And their moneyline number should be something in the range of -500. They probably won’t cover (they’re just 5-8 on the season against the spread) but they’re definitely going to figure out a way to win.
For 99 percent of NFL teams, it would be wildly unsustainable. We’d be dying to fade them in the first round of the playoffs, knowing the one-score game record was indicative of a lucky team, a la the Vikings a few years ago when they ran into Daniel Jones and the Giants. Or the Giants the week after knowing they were lucky too.
This is a different beast. The Chiefs are getting lucky, for sure. But they’re going to be in the postseason with that defense and that quarterback. When the alien looks surprised they managed to pull off a three-peat despite all the close calls, just tell him “Patrick Mahomes.”
The most interesting division
The NFC North is — quite easily — the best division in football this season. But if we were awarding a “Most Interesting Division in the World” (hey Dos Equis, call me), the NFC West takes the cake.
If you think you know how this division plays out, you’re lying through your teeth. Coming into the year, the last-place 49ers (6-7) were the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC. San Francisco throttled the Bears on Sunday, meaning the Niners are not remotely out of the division just yet, although the schedule is tough and the injuries continue to pile up. Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were placed on injured reserve this past week and now Isaac Guerendo is banged up as well.
The other three teams are just fascinating. The Rams brought their A++ game against the Bills Sunday at home. A single A+ game might not have gotten it done. Before today, teams with six touchdowns and zero turnovers were 245-0 in the Super Bowl era. The Bills pulled that feat off and still lost to Los Angeles, 44-42, in the highest-scoring game of the season, meaning the Rams move to 7-6, just a game behind the division-leading Seahawks.
Los Angeles has looked incredibly elite for small stretches. When Matthew Stafford cooks, he flambés. Puka Nacua was electric Sunday, scoring his first-ever rushing touchdown and finding the end zone with a receiving touchdown as well. Cooper Kupp elevated for a ridiculous touchdown as well while Kyren Williams and Blake Corum were dominant in the run game. They’re a classic “chip and a chance” team that could get really hot because of the potential for elite quarterback play and a young defense that’s been getting better throughout the season. The NFC North is problematic because the Packers and Vikings have so many wins at this point, the Rams are going to need some help if they want to make it as a wild card. But they also have three division games remaining, which might mean this is NFC West title or bust. This team is not someone you want to see in the playoffs, I promise you that.
The Seahawks have been coming on like gangbusters. They’re 4-0 since their bye and have allowed just one team (the Jets?!) to score more than 20 points in that stretch. Mike MacDonald’s defense is playing really good football. Sweeping the Cardinals in that stretch is massive for their division hopes. Sunday’s win was especially impressive because Kenneth Walker III was out. Didn’t matter, as backup Zach Charbonnet delivered in a huge spot, rushing for 134 yards and two scores while adding another 59 yards in the passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has borderline supplanted D.K. Metcalf as the alpha on this team, but you know a monster game from D.K. is lurking at some point down the stretch or in the postseason. They picked off Kyler Murray twice in the first quarter and stifled Arizona’s comeback attempt with defense and a clock-killing field goal drive at the end.
Arizona’s in a precarious spot now at 6-7. The Cards were in the catbird’s seat just a few weeks ago, but now find themselves fighting an uphill battle to make the postseason. Fortunately, they’ve got the Panthers (who have looked good!) and Patriots on the schedule the next two weeks, so they could flip this quick. They clearly have the playmakers for Kyler with Trey McBride and the somewhat underwhelming Marvin Harrison Jr., plus James Conner’s consistency. It may simply come down to the final two games of the season featuring a pair of divisional matchups.
You could honestly sell me on any of these teams winning the division. If I have to pick right now, give me the Rams, who have the highest ceiling of all these teams.
The Cousins situation
I know what the reports said on Sunday: The Falcons aren’t going to bench Kirk Cousins. And I get it. He’s the high-priced, free-agent veteran quarterback. Atlanta knows what it has in Michael Penix Jr., and you’d think if the Falcons believed he was ready to play right now, he’d be under center after how Cousins has played over the last month.
The Falcons have one win since Halloween, and since that win in Dallas where Cousins went off, he’s got zero passing touchdowns and eight interceptions in a four-game stretch. That’s BAD.
Sunday was particularly disastrous for Cousins, because he headed back to Minnesota for the ultimate revenge game against his old team and got significantly outplayed by his replacement. Sam Darnold’s crew thumped Atlanta 42-21 and Darnold went off for 347 passing yards and five passing touchdowns, two each to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Cousins didn’t find the end zone once via the passing game and threw a pair of picks against Brian Flores’ defense.
Atlanta’s four-game skid has put them one back of the Bucs in the division, and although the Falcons own the tiebreaker thanks to sweeping the season matchup, they’re also staring at a possible missed opportunity if Tampa Bay manages to win out. Atlanta’s schedule features the Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers, so maybe Cousins finds his mojo against four questionable defenses and the Falcons sneak into the playoffs. I wouldn’t rule out them winning out, but nothing over the last month tells us they’re going to be good on offense and Cousins’ mobility at this stage is a concern for sure.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s got an easy schedule, too, after snuffing out the Raiders 28-13. They’ve won three straight in impressive fashion, outside of stealing one against the frisky Panthers, and have the Chargers, Panthers, Cowboys and Saints left. A 3-1 finish at minimum should be the expectation based on the games they’re favored in and they could run the table as well.
In other words, Atlanta’s margin for error is incredibly slim. And it will almost certainly come down to the quarterback position.
