No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State will meet at Lucas Oil Stadium in a Big Ten Championship Game matchup few could have predicted this season. After all, the Big Ten has long been a conference dominated by Ohio State and Michigan, and when the league dropped divisions, most were certain those would be the two programs reaching this game.
Instead, it’s an Oregon program navigating the Big Ten for the first time — a program that happens to be the only undefeated FBS team remaining. Standing between the Ducks and a Big Ten title is a Penn State team that was largely written off as a Big Ten contender after losing to Ohio State earlier in the season.
The Nittany Lions have long been labeled a program unable to get over the hump. Well, Michigan got rid of that hump for them last week.
While both teams are firmly entrenched in the CFP’s 12-team field, the No. 1 seed and a bye is reachable for both. If Oregon wins, it’ll remain at No. 1, and Penn State could jump to No. 1 with a win over the Ducks even if No. 2 Texas beats Georgia.
In other words, there’s a whole hell of a lot to play for in Indianapolis Saturday night.
Oregon vs. Penn State: Need to know
Oregon could do something only Michigan State has done before: With a win in this game, Oregon would boast victories over Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the same season. All in their first year in the Big Ten! Only one other program has done that, and it’s Michigan State. The funny part? Michigan State has done it five times! Most recently in 2015, but the Spartans did it in 1951, 1965, 1966 and 1999 as well. Remember, Penn State didn’t join the league until 1993, so those first three times included nonconference games.
Oregon is one of five teams to reach the conference championship in its first season in a new league this year: It seems there’s value in unfamiliarity? The new blood across the country has found plenty of success in their new homes this season. Arizona State (Big 12), Army (American), SMU (ACC) and Texas (SEC) are all playing in conference title games this week after joining their new leagues this season.
Penn State is 4-12 all-time against the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25: I know 4-12 doesn’t seem like a good record, but keep in mind No. 1 teams don’t lose very often. That’s why they’re No. 1. Winning 25% of those 16 games is better than most programs. While the Nittany Lions have enjoyed success, there hasn’t been much lately. The last win over a No. 1 team came in 1990 against Notre Dame. They haven’t done it since joining the Big Ten.
How to watch Oregon vs. Penn State live
Date: Saturday, December 7 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (Free)
Streaming on Paramount+ with Showtime (Try It Free)
Oregon vs. Penn State prediction, picks
I’ve seen plenty of surprise from fans and media alike that Oregon is only a 3.5-point favorite in the game, but the spread makes sense to me. There’s far too much attention paid to Penn State’s inability to beat Ohio State and it overshadows the fact the Nittany Lions are a genuinely good team! But if I’m taking a side in this game, I’m going with the Ducks. While both teams are evenly-matched across the board, there’s one spot that Oregon has a big advantage: at receiver. Penn State’s entire passing attack is built through Tyler Warren, and he’s awesome, but what if Oregon takes him away? What’s the counter? Oregon has plenty of options, and it should be enough to make the difference. Pick: Oregon -3.5
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for three outright upsets during college football’s championship week. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
