And then there were two. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is set to crown a national champion on Monday as 7-seed Notre Dame takes on 8-seed Ohio State at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
This will be the ninth meeting for two of college football’s most storied programs and marks the third consecutive season the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish will face off — the longest such streak in the series’ relatively brief history. Ohio State and Notre Dame completed a home-and-home series in 2023 when the Buckeyes walked into South Bend, Indiana, and walked out with a 17-14 victory.
Notre Dame has not beaten Ohio State since 1936. The Fighting Irish’s only wins in the series came in 1935 and 1936. It’s been all Ohio State since.
The two programs are no strangers to postseason play against each other. They met in the 2006 and 2016 Fiesta Bowls, with the Buckeyes winning both matchups.
Ohio State has been dominant in its CFP run. The Buckeyes won their first two games, including a decisive victory against top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl, by a combined score of 83-38. In their Cotton Bowl semifinal against Texas, the Longhorns had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, but Jack Sawyer’s strip-sack and subsequent 83-yard touchdown return secured a 28-14 win for Ohio State.
Notre Dame has delivered its own set of impressive performances. The Fighting Irish defeated Indiana by 10 — leading by even more for much of the game — in the first round, then cruised past SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They capped their run with a last-second field goal to earn a 27-24 victory over Penn State in the Orange Bowl, becoming the first program in college football history to win two bowl games in the same season.
CBS Sports experts have filed their picks for the College Football Playoff National Championship. Here’s what to expect.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Need to know
Can Smith get back on track?: Ohio State freshman Jeremiah Smith was held in check against Texas, finishing with just one reception for three yards. It was the first time all season he failed to record multiple receptions in a game and only the third time he was held below 50 yards receiving.
The Longhorns employed multiple strategies to slow him down. They clogged passing lanes with defensive linemen and linebackers while bracketing Smith in double coverage with cornerbacks and safeties. Notre Dame now has recent tape to study in its effort to contain one of college football’s premier playmakers. However, Ohio State has an equal amount of time to adjust, setting up an intriguing chess match.
Entering the semifinal round, Smith had recorded 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns in Ohio State’s first two playoff games.
Notre Dame’s injury list growing: Notre Dame overcame significant injuries to reach this point. The Fighting Irish have been without starting defensive linemen Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore, starting offensive lineman Ashton Craig, and potential first-round NFL Draft cornerback Benjamin Morrison since October.
In their first-round win against Indiana, Rylie Mills — the team leader in sacks — suffered a season-ending knee injury. Then, in the semifinal win over Penn State, starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp sustained an injury that will keep him out of the national title game.
Adding to their challenges, leading rusher Jeremiyah Love has been managing a nagging knee injury. However, he played through it against the Nittany Lions and is expected to be available for the matchup with the Buckeyes.
Defensive battle on tap: The CFP title game will feature two of the nation’s top defenses. Ohio State (12.2 points per game) and Notre Dame (14.3 ppg) rank first and second nationally in scoring defense, respectively.
The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 21 points in the CFP, while the Fighting Irish gave up just 27 total points in their first two playoff games. Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in total defense. Ohio State and Notre Dame are first and second, respectively, in pass defense and rank first (Notre Dame) and third (Ohio State) in defensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
How to watch Ohio State vs. Notre Dame live
Date: Monday, Jan. 20 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction, picks
Odds via Sportsline consensus
Spread: Ohio State -8.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -368, Notre Dame +289 | O/U: 46.5
Dennis Dodd: Ohio State deserves every bit of love it is getting — best wide receivers, the playoff’s best quarterback, No. 1 defense in the country, But something bothers me. Actually, it has bothered the betting sharks. The line favoring Ohio State has gone from 9.5 to 8.5, which suggests the spread was too big from the jump. I’ve said from the start there is a pathway for ND to win this game if it can win the turnover battle and hold the ball for about 35 minutes. It could happen … but it probably won’t. The Irish will hang around long enough to make the Buckeyes sweat. Pick: Notre Dame +8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 17
Chip Patterson: Ohio State proved to be human in the national semifinal, particularly on offense as the Buckeyes failed to pull away from Texas early and then found itself facing overtime before the defensive heroics at the goal line. But even with that game proving the Buckeyes are not going to mow through the competition, I do think Ohio State is going to be able to establish — and then defend — a lead in this game against Notre Dame. The resiliency of this Fighting Irish squad tells us they will definitely not lay down for a coronation, but while they can hang around, I think it will be a game that Ohio State mostly controls from start to finish. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 20
Tom Fornelli: The only team that’s been capable of stopping Ohio State this season has been Ohio State. Oregon didn’t stop them in Eugene — the Ducks merely outscored them. Michigan didn’t stop the Buckeyes as much as Ohio State’s gameplan and decision-making did. Notre Dame has been outstanding since its inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois, but I don’t think the Irish offense is balanced enough to overcome the Buckeyes. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 14
Shehan Jeyarajah: Ohio State stacked the best roster in college football this season, and they’ve finally hit their vast potential in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes have been better on both offense and defense than the Irish and boast playmakers at every level of the field. To its credit, Notre Dame might be the best-coached team in the country and has taken advantage of every miscue en route to a title game. Against Ohio State, though, it won’t matter. The Buckeyes are better at almost every position and will cruise to their first national championship in a decade. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 13
David Cobb: Ohio State showed its full potential in blowout victories over Tennessee and Oregon to begin the College Football Playoff as it crushed two quality opponents with dominance on both sides of the football. Notre Dame’s path has centered on forcing crippling turnovers, special teams execution and timely plays from an offense that is solid but not overly explosive. The Fighting Irish are the more injury-depleted of the two teams and must walk a fine line to keep this one close late into the second half. Look for the Buckeyes to pull away late and cap a dominant playoff run with one final elite showing. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13
Will Backus: Notre Dame has done an admirable job making it this far while battling through a litany of injuries, but I think this is the game where it catches up to them. The Fighting Irish are at a distinct advantage along the line of scrimmage, where they’ll likely be down two offensive line starters — including left tackle Anthonie Knapp — and three starting defensive linemen. That’s bad news against an Ohio State team that has largely dominated in the trenches during its run through the College Football Playoff. Given the play of both defenses this year, I expect this to be a low-scoring, hard-fought slobberknocker until Ohio State’s depth allows it to pull away a bit at the end. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13
Jerry Palm: Notre Dame has been resourceful and resilient in this playoff, and it has paid off well for the Irish. However, the best team in college football is the Ohio State team that annihilated Tennessee and destroyed No. 1 Oregon. The Buckeyes were challenged by Texas but rose to the occasion there as well. The Fighting Irish will live up to their name and put up a fight, but the best team in college football is still on the other sideline. It is hard to pick against the Buckeyes. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 10
Brandon Marcello: Ohio State’s run to the national championship has long seemed inevitable to me, but the path hasn’t always been clear. I was there for both of the Buckeyes’ losses this season at Oregon and Michigan, and even through the fog of those disappointments, it was clear they were equipped to win a national title with the most talented skill players in the sport and a defensive line capable of pushing any team past their breaking point. Then I watched Notre Dame up close at the Sugar Bowl, where a shorthanded team dictated the rhythm and terms against Georgia. The Irish did it again in the second half against Penn State in the semifinals, rallying from a 10-point deficit.
The key to Notre Dame’s run has been Riley Leonard taking over games in spurts with his legs and an opportunistic defense that rallies to the ball and forces turnovers. Ohio State is more talented than the Irish, but Marcus Freeman’s team is not used to losing, motivated by its lone loss in Week 2 against a scrappy-but-average Northern Illinois team. I’d like Notre Dame more in this showdown if left tackle Anthonie Knapp was available — and if sacks leader Rylie MIlls wasn’t out as well. Notre Dame still has the speed and power to slow Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have too much firepower in this battle of the nation’s top two defenses. Pick: Notre Dame +8.5 | Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 21.
Who wins Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out, all from the model that has simulated this game 10,000 times.
