It’s not quite as special as those first four days of the NCAA Tournament, but the weeks around Thanksgiving always delivers dandies, especially when ballrooms are involved. This season is no different and the magic gets started a little early.
No. 13 Baylor stunned Mo. 22 St. John’s 99-98 in double-overtime on Jeremy Roach’s game-winning 3-pointer as time expired in Thursday’s Baha Mar Championship opener. Roach wouldn’t have had the opportunity to make a game-winner if he hadn’t bricked a free throw late in regulation to open the door for St. John’s to stay alive.
“He said, ‘I’m going to miss this free throw so I can get a SportsCenter Top 10 play,'” Bears coach Scott Drew told reporters gleefully afterward.
College basketball, folks. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
But there’s no time for Baylor to rest on its laurels when No. 11 Tennessee awaits the Bears less than 24 hours later. The Vols throttled Virginia 64-42 behind 26 points from the net-shredding Chaz Lanier.
Let’s dive into this early-season matchup between two top-15 teams loaded with firepower and splashy transfer portal hauls.
Tennessee vs. Baylor: Key pivot point
Can Baylor’s guards drive the ball? This is strength on strength. Baylor’s offense has pivoted away from a ton of pick-and-rolls and instead features a bunch more drive-and-kick actions to attack long closeouts and accentuate its deep, loaded backcourt. Baylor can usually find a weak link on the perimeter and get opposing defenses into rotation with turbo drives.
But Tennessee’s point-of-attack defense is a fortress. Jahmai Mashack and Zakai Zeigler are on the National Defensive Player of the Year shortlist. Their off-ball defense might be even better than their ridiculously impactful, on-ball defense. Tennessee will be in business if Baylor’s lead guards can’t drive the ball and get into the paint. Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier has been phenomenal all season offensively, but the Volunteers can’t hide the North Florida transfer in this matchup. Baylor has way too many guards with juice. Lanier has to play his best defensive game of the season.
Tennessee vs. Baylor: Most impactful matchup
Tennessee’s Igor Milicic vs. Baylor’s smaller guards: Baylor has just been way better this season when it goes small, inserting freshman point guard Rob Wright into the game and taking center Josh Ojianwuna off the floor. Norchad Omier shifts to the 5, Jeremy Roach slides into a 2-guard role and Baylor starts humming … on offense. That’s going to be tough to do against Tennessee. If that happens, some of the cross-matching gets awkward for both teams.
If Tennessee stays with its normal starting five, Vols’ center Felix Okpara will stay on Omier. That means Milicic, a 6-foot-10 forward, will have to guard one of Baylor’s backcourt studs like Jayden Nunn or VJ Edgecombe. That’s probably going to be an advantage for Baylor. But Baylor has to guard him with a smaller guy, too. Milicic has been great lately, rising over defenders for 3s and attacking the glass with a vengeance. Milicic could force Baylor to stay big if he’s dominating some of Scott Drew’s small-ball lineups. But if he’s struggling to defend in space, Tennessee may be the team that has to counter to go small and get Jordan Gainey on the floor in a hurry.
The chess match will be fascinating.
How to watch Tennessee vs. Baylor live
Date: Friday, Nov. 22 | Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Location: Baha Mar Convention Center — Nassau, Bahamas
TV: CBS Sports Network [Channel finder]
Live stream: CBSSports.com | Mobile: CBS Sports App (Free)
Tennessee vs. Baylor prediction, pick
All odds via BetMGM. Check out the latest BetMGM promo code to get in the game.
Baylor, a 4.5-point underdog vs. Tennessee at BetMGM sportsbook, is a bit of a tough matchup for the Volunteers because it has enough creators/shooting to generate good looks and also convert ’em. I also wonder if Tennessee has just been running a bit hot lately offensively. The Vols don’t take many 3-pointers, but they’re shooting a sizzling 40%. I’ll take the Bears in somewhat of an upset. Keep an eye on Norchad Omier’s floor-stretching abilities. He hasn’t shot it well yet, but he will eventually. It will be the X-Factor against Felix Okpara who would much rather hang out near the rim. Prediction: Baylor 75, Tennessee 74
