For the second straight year, we collectively counted out Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. And for the second straight year, they’re making us all look really stupid. Tampa is off to a 2-0 start and Baker is playing some great football. Over his last 10 starts, he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (22) and is tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for most wins (10, including the postseason).
Tampa’s defense is banged up on the back end, but that shouldn’t be an issue against this Broncos offense, which is really struggling to do anything down the field with Bo Nix under center. Denver would love to run the ball, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the stats imply. Tampa’s rush-defense numbers are skewed by playing Jayden Daniels and a couple of long runs by the Lions. The Broncos need to win via the pass if they want to take down the Bucs.
Nix has attempted 47 passes so far this season, is averaging 5 yards per attempt, has four picks and has yet to throw a touchdown. I’m willing to take that gamble.
On the offensive side, anyone who thought it might be Dave Canales creating the magic surely feels off base at this point, with the Panthers limping out to 13 total points and benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton. New OC Liam Cohen has moved Chris Godwin to the slot more often and he, along with Jaleel McLaughlin, could eat in this matchup with Patrick Surtain II likely shadowing Mike Evans. This is a sneaky Rachaad White spot as well, with Kenneth Walker III and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren combo both having reasonable success against Denver’s run defense.
If the Bucs get a lead, they’re going to pound the ball and Todd Bowles will blitz the hell out of Nix while he tries to mount a comeback. The Bucs have one cruise-control win at home so far this season against a rookie quarterback and a questionable offense.
Sign me up for another.
Pick: Buccaneers (-6.5)
Best Bets Week 2: 0-5
Best Bets YTD: 2-8
Other best bets
Teaser: Chargers (+7) at Steelers
This game could be crazy low scoring with two slam-it-in-your-face offenses. The difference between the two teams is the quarterback, however. Justin Fields has been a wonderful surprise this season, but I’m not sure he’s prepared for a Bolts defense that has shut down questionable offenses in Vegas and Carolina so far this season, yielding less than 150 yards per game through the air. Arthur Smith isn’t going to attack vertically, which means the Steelers have to win up front by pounding the ball. I don’t expect another monster game from J.K. Dobbins but I wouldn’t put anything past the Chargers in the run game with the way their offensive line is playing. Neutralizing the Steelers up front would allow Justin Herbert to take some shots to potential breakout Quentin Johnston. This is the Jim Nantz/Tony Romo game and it should be a good one, but I’ll take the Bolts to find a way to win and certainly keep it within a touchdown regardless.
Teaser: 49ers (-1) at Rams
The Niners are on the second leg of back-to-back road games here, so it’s not an easy spot, particularly against a division rival. But we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan dominate Sean McVay in the last few years and now he gets the Rams at their most vulnerable. Multiple offensive linemen for Los Angeles went on injured reserve this week and Matthew Stafford is going to be missing both of his primary weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Deebo Samuel is missing as well but this profiles as a possible Brandon Aiyuk explosion and George Kittle won’t be easy to deal with either. If the Niners get a lead it’s Jordan Mason time against a defense no longer sporting Aaron Donald. Laying the full touchdown is doable but tough — I certainly expect the 49ers to find a way to win.
Texans/Vikings Over 46.5
I don’t want to call the Vikings offense an unstoppable force with Sam Darnold, but as long as Justin Jefferson is out there he is going to produce big numbers. Just kidding — he actually played great football without Jefferson out there. With Jefferson on the field, Darnold attacked down the field from his own end zone. Houston’s defense profiles as a potentially elite unit, especially the way Derek Stingley Jr., is playing but the Vikings protection up front and weapons give them enough to answer any scores the Texans fire off. And I think there will be plenty against Brian Flores’ hyper-aggressive blitz defense — this year C.J. Stroud is 15-for-19 for 151 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the blitz. The Texans offensive line can hold up and Nico Collins/Tank Dell are lethal deep/explosive play weapons in those situations. I’m expecting a sneaky-ish back-and-forth affair here.
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Lions/Cardinals Over 51.5
The Cardinals have already been involved in two high-scoring affairs this season, going back and forth with the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and hanging a forty burger on the banged-up Rams last week. Detroit’s defense is much improved and it may be tough sledding in the run game for Arizona, but Kyler Murray’s playing some Big Boy football already this season and should be able to keep it going against a Lions secondary that is still finding its footing with a lot of new pieces added. It’s hard not to be impressed with Kyler and the weapons he’s got should find success against Detroit. Marvin Harrison Jr., was incredible last week and left some yards on the field. Trey McBride’s usage is through the roof and he might be in store for a breakout game soon. Detroit’s not afraid to keep up with anyone and Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams/Sam LaPorta give them passing-game weapons to get involved in a shootout.
Panthers (+5.5) at Raiders
GULP. Who doesn’t love a good, old dead-cat bounce game? It’s borderline literal for this one, with the stinky Carolina Panthers repping the feline mascot. Bryce Young just got benched, which means the entire team 1) should rally around Andy Dalton and 2) knows that no one’s job is safe. The Raiders are playing well, but I don’t think they’ll run away with this game. They were involved in a low-scoring close first half against the Chargers before Jim Harbaugh’s squad pulled away and they miraculously stormed back against the Ravens. Dalton will give Carolina a higher floor offensively — it’s impossible to be lower — and I expect the Raiders to try to win this game via the ground game almost entirely. That opens up the back door for the Ginger King worst case.
