Another 3-2 against-the-spread week for us on our top five picks. Backing the Tennessee Titans was clearly a poor decision, but we knew the hook would come in handy with the Green Bay Packers at +3.5 vs. the Detroit Lions.
This week, the Los Angeles Rams will look to build on their statement win over the Buffalo Bills against the rival San Francisco 49ers, the two Pennsylvania NFL teams face off in Philly and we get a potential Super Bowl preview when the Bills take on the Lions. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top-five picks ATS record: 30-34-1
Overall ATS record: 92-113-3
Straight up record: 132-76
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Washington is coming off a bye after throttling the Titans, 42-19. The Commanders dominated from beginning to end in that game, and now Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels heads back to Louisiana, where he lit the college football world on fire and won the Heisman Trophy last year.
The Saints barely scraped by the lowly New York Giants last week, and may have lost Derek Carr for the season after he broke his left hand and suffered a concussion. We don’t know if it will be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler under center, but I’m expecting a big outing from the rested Commanders regardless.
If you think this number is too big, keep in mind that rookie quarterbacks favored by seven or more points are 13-4 ATS since 2019.
The pick: Commanders -7.5
Projected score: Commanders 30-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
I tried to back the worst ATS team in the NFL last week since they were playing at home vs. the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars featuring a backup quarterback. They repaid me by failing to score a single touchdown, and lost in a half-empty stadium where boos rained down on Will Levis and Co.
This week, the Titans get to host a top 10 offense motivated to remain in the playoff picture, which features the NFL’s passing leader and receiving leader. The Bengals defense is certainly worrisome, but the Titans have a bottom five offense. Do you think Levis, Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley are going to explode this week in a system Zac Taylor taught Brian Callahan? As we mentioned, the Titans are a league-worst 2-11 ATS, while the Bengals are an impressive 6-1 ATS on the road this season.
The pick: Bengals -5
Projected score: Bengals 27-17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Part of me is rooting for the Colts because there is actually a path for them at 6-7 to win the AFC South instead of the Houston Texans. However, that path is likely destroyed by a loss in Denver. Both the Colts and Broncos are fresh coming off of bye weeks, but Denver is ready to explode at home.
Did you know the Broncos have seven wins by more than one possession this season? That’s tied with Buffalo for most in the league. Their 41 points scored vs. the Cleveland Browns last week were the most scored by a Broncos team since 2018, and this defense will be prepared to get after Anthony Richardson, who has completed a league-worst 47.4% of his passes. This week, he has to leave the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium to play outside in the cold. Richardson has made just five career road starts!
The biggest mismatch in this game is the Broncos defense vs. the Colts defense. The former ranks top 10 in yards allowed per game, while the latter ranks bottom four. The Colts have allowed 375 total yards in nine games this season. No other team has allowed that many yards in that many games.
The pick: Broncos -4
Projected score: Broncos 31-24
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Brandon Graham revealed this week Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown aren’t friends anymore. I of course say that tongue in cheek, but Brown’s “passing” response to what could improve on offense is a fair one. The Eagles’ 180.6 passing yards per game rank second-worst in the NFL, while Hurts hasn’t surpassed 200 passing yards in a game since Nov. 14.
The Steelers have been one of the best teams in the NFL since the QB switch, and ATS superstars as well. Russell Wilson is undefeated ATS this season in games that don’t feature driving snowstorms. I made them a best bet last week vs. the Browns, and I’ll do it again here as five-point dogs.
The pick: Steelers +5.5
Projected score: Eagles 24-23
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Here, we have a team coming off a mini bye hosting a defense that was just ran through for 44 points. Still, this is the game of the week for good reason. The Bills and Lions are tied in having the second-best combined record in an AFC vs. NFC matchup in Week 15 or later since 1970. This really could be a Super Bowl preview, which is why “The NFL Today” is going, but the Lions have the better team overall.
Josh Allen is an absolute monster who scored SIX total touchdowns vs. the Rams last week and still lost. Now, he has to remain on the road to take on the Super Bowl favorites — who boast a well-rounded offense capable of throttling the Bills defense more than the Rams did last week.
The Bills are 0-2 ATS as underdogs in non-divisional games this season, while the Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-divisional games. With this matchup in Detroit and the number under a field goal, I’ll take the Lions.
The pick: Lions -2.5
Projected score: Lions 28-24
