They say that football is often won in the trenches, and that helps explain why the New York Giants have struggled so much this year. The Giants have both the fewest sacks (five) on defense and have allowed the most sacks (30) on offense, with that minus-25 differential the worst through five games since the 1970 merger. Thus, the Week 6 NFL odds having New York as a 14-point underdog to the Bills shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. It’s not only one of the largest Week 6 NFL spreads, but it makes New York the biggest underdog of the 2023 NFL season.
Add in that the Giants are the lone team that’s 0-5 against the spread this season and Buffalo could be an enticing team to back with Week 6 NFL bets, even with this large number. However, other games with much smaller NFL Vegas odds may be ones to avoid. All of the Week 6 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 6 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 171-119 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 25-11 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 6 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 6 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 6 NFL picks is that the Falcons (-2.5) cover at home against the Commanders. Washington is coming off a 20-point home loss to a Bears team that was riding a 14-game losing streak. The Commanders simply can’t protect Sam Howell, as he’s been sacked 29 times already and is on pace to be sacked a mind-boggling 99 times this year, which would shatter the current NFL record of 76 by David Carr (2002).
Washington’s defense isn’t any better, as it’s allowed 33-plus points in four straight games. Meanwhile, Atlanta hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game and boasts the No. 7 scoring defense. The Falcons also rank in the top five in third-down defense and redzone defense, so they come up big when it matters the most. Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder is 5-0 at home in his NFL career, so the Falcons are projected to cover as 2.5-point home favorites in 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 6 NFL predictions: The Seahawks (+2.5) cover the spread on the road versus the Bengals. Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense came to life in a 34-20 win over the Cardinals last week, but this will be a much tougher matchup against a Seattle squad that should be well-rested after its bye week.
The Seahawks are 3-1 and won outright in their only other game as an underdog in Week 2 at Detroit. Geno Smith went 32 of 41 for 328 yards and two touchdowns in that victory and hit nine different receivers. Meanwhile, Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III has come to life over his last two games, producing 233 scrimmage yards and three scores against the Giants and Panthers before the bye.
Walker will look to continue his strong play against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed (770) and yards allowed per carry (5.3). The model predicts that Smith and Walker combine to help Seattle pile up more than 350 yards of total offense, with the Seahawks even winning outright in 50% of simulations as +134 moneyline underdogs. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 6 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 6 NFL schedule and revealed two coveted A-rated picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which A-rated picks should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 6 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Get full NFL picks at SportsLine
Thursday, Oct. 12
Broncos at Chiefs (-10.5, 47)
Sunday, Oct. 15
Ravens vs. Titans in London (+4, 41)
Commanders at Falcons (-2.5, 42.5)
Vikings at Bears (+2.5, 44.5)
Seahawks at Bengals (-2.5, 45)
49ers at Browns (+7, 37)
Saints at Texans (+1.5, 42.5)
Colts at Jaguars (-4, 45.5)
Panthers at Dolphins (-13.5, 48.5)
Patriots at Raiders (-3, 41.5)
Lions at Buccaneers (+3, 43.5)
Cardinals at Rams (-7, 48.5)
Eagles at Jets (+7, 41)
Giants at Bills (-14, 44.5)
Monday, Oct. 16
Cowboys at Chargers (+2.5, 51)