NC State vs. Virginia odds, line, time: 2023 college football picks, Week 4 predictions from proven model

Brennan Armstrong could heap more misery on his former team when his NC State Wolfpack visit the Virginia Cavaliers for an ACC matchup Friday night at Scott Stadium. Armstrong spent five seasons at Virginia, three as a starter, but now the quarterback is leading the 2-1 Wolfpack. The Cavaliers (0-3) are off to an abysmal start as the only Power Five team without a victory. They lost several key players in the transfer portal after going 3-7 last season. The Wolfpack went 8-5, and their only loss this season came to top-10 Notre Dame. They rebounded with a 45-7 victory against VMI last Saturday. Virginia lost 42-14 to Maryland last Friday.

Kickoff in Charlottesville, Va. is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Wolfpack are 9-point favorites in the latest N.C. State vs. Virginia odds, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 47.5. Before locking in any Virginia vs. NC State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of nearly $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on NC State vs. Virginia and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Virginia vs. NC State: 

  • NC State vs. Virginia spread: Wolfpack -9
  • NC State vs. Virginia over/under: 47.5 points
  • NC State vs. Virginia money line: Wolfpack -364, Cavaliers +285
  • NCST: NC State is 14-12 ATS in its ACC games since 2020. 
  • UVA: Virginia is 15-9 ATS in conference games since 2020.
  • NC State vs. Virginia picks: See picks at SportsLine 
  • NC State vs. Virginia live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why NC State can cover

Armstrong has been the star of the offense, and the unit should have little trouble making plays against the struggling Cavaliers. Armstrong has 679 passing yards and a team-high 161 rushing yards while accounting for six touchdowns. Virginia is allowing 452 yards per game (112th in FBS) and yielding 42 points per contest (120th). NCSU is allowing 29.5 points (83rd).

The Virginia defense has struggled mightily against the run, giving up 191 yards per game on the ground (112th in FBS). NC State averages 146.5 (62nd), with Armstrong leading a stable of capable runners. Four have at least one run of 15 yards or more, and Jordan Houston (96 yards) and Kendrick Raphael (92) lead the way. Michael Allen is averaging 7.4 yards on 11 carries. The Wolfpack defense has nine sacks and is allowing less than 200 passing yards per game. See which team to pick here.

Why Virginia can cover

Virginia is 3-1 against the spread as a home underdog since the start of last season. The offense has been a bright spot at times. Freshman quarterback Anthony Colandrea has committed some costly turnovers but has 640 passing yards over the past two games. He replaced the injured Tony Muskett in the opener, but the Monmouth transfer could be set to return. Whichever quarterback is in the lineup Friday will have some weapons to work with.     

Receivers Malik Washington and Malachi Fields have combined for 37 receptions for 496 yards this season. The Cavaliers passing offense averages 249 yards and 8.4 yards per attempt (36th in FBS). Kobe Pace has been trouble for defenses out of the backfield, as the running back has 103 yards and two touchdowns on just five receptions. Pace also has 62 rushing yards, while Perris Jones has 82 and two TDs. See which team to pick here.

How to make NC State vs. Virginia picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting that the teams combine for 47 points. The model also shows one side of the spread is hitting almost 60% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins NC State vs. Virginia on Friday, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out. 

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