The MLB Winter Meetings, baseball’s annual hot stove bonanza, begin in earnest Monday in Dallas. Four days of free-agent signings, trades, and rumors are upon us. This will be the busiest week of the offseason and chances are the winter’s biggest moves will take place this week. That feels especially true now that Juan Soto has agreed to a record-breaking $765 million deal with the Mets. We here at CBS Sports will have you covered from every angle throughout the Winter Meetings.
With that in mind, here are five bold hot stove predictions for this year’s Winter Meetings in Texas.
1. The Yankees will spend $300 million
The Yankees lost Juan Soto to the crosstown rival Mets and I do not think they’re going to sit around and feel sorry for themselves. Expect them to have a busy Winter Meetings now that they have a Soto-sized wad of cash burning a hole in their pocket. They’ve been connected to Max Fried in recent weeks, ditto Teoscar Hernández. Those two won’t replace Soto — there is no replacing Soto — but it’s a start. Point is, our first bold prediction says the Yankees will be the busiest team at the Winter Meetings, and drop at least $300 million on various free agents.
2. Arenado will get traded to the …
… Astros and replace Alex Bregman, who signs elsewhere at the Winter Meetings. I like the Tigers for Bregman, but this prediction isn’t about him. It’s about the Cardinals unloading Arenado, who apparently wants out so much that he’s willing to play first base. Arenado is neither the hitter nor defender he was in his prime, but he can still pick it at the hot corner, and his pull-heavy approach would work well with the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park.
St. Louis owes Arenado $64 million over the next three years. They’ll pay down enough of that to turn him into a $15 million a year player for Houston, who gets to replace Bregman with a big name, albeit not someone who is a star-caliber player at this point in his career.
3. The Orioles will sign a starter
But it won’t be Corbin Burnes. That doesn’t mean Burnes will leave the Orioles! We’re boldly predicting Burnes does not sign during the Winter Meetings, and in the meantime, the O’s scoop up another arm to solidify a rotation that at present includes Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and maybe Trevor Rogers. Baltimore has been connected to Nathan Eovaldi the last few weeks and I love that fit. I could see them signing Shane Bieber, who is expected to return from Tommy John surgery around midseason. Point is, we’re predicting the O’s leave Dallas with a starter, but not Burnes. He’ll sign at a later date.
4. Bellinger will go to a team that missed out on Soto
It is no secret the Cubs would like to unload Cody Bellinger and the $27.5 million he’s owed in 2025 (not to mention his 2026 player option). Bellinger’s not a bad player, but he is high-priced, and it seems the Cubs would like to spend that money in other ways given their outfield depth. Our next bold prediction says one of the teams that misses out on Soto — the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees — quickly pivots and trades for Bellinger. The Dodgers also missed out on Soto, but they signed veteran Michael Conforto on Sunday, which likely takes a Bellinger reunion off the table.
It won’t be a straight salary dump, as Bellinger certainly has value as an above-average hitter and defender, but the return will not include any top prospects or impact big leaguers. Bottom line, Bellinger will move at the Winter Meetings now that Soto has signed.
5. The White Sox will make multiple Rule 5 Draft picks
The annual Rule 5 Draft is a mechanism to give minor leaguers a big-league opportunity. It prevents teams from burying players in the minors forever. A player taken in the Rule 5 Draft must stay on his new team’s MLB roster all next season, or be offered back to his original team. Teams usual look for bench players and middle relievers in the Rule 5 Draft, and you have to go back to the Athletics (Ka’ai Tom and Dany Jiménez) and Orioles (Mac Sceroler and Tyler Wells) in 2020 for the last time a team made two picks in the Rule 5 Draft. Multiple Rule 5 Draft picks is one of the most aggressive acts of tanking possible in this game, and we’re boldly predicting the White Sox do it. One pitcher and one hitter they’ll grab, and they’ll keep both players for the entire 2025 season.
