For the past few seasons, the Manchester Derby has been a lopsided affair. Manchester City has been competing for all the silverware that they can get their hands on, while Manchester United has been in the relative wilderness, looking to use an opportunity to face their noisy neighbors as a chance to course correct. It’s led to Manchester City winning four of the last five meetings in all competitions, while in the midst of collecting four consecutive Premier League titles. But this season, that’s not the case.
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United still have plenty of work to put in on the pitch, but Ruben Amorim’s arrival has brought a breath of fresh air into the side that maybe they can return to their best. Meanwhile, City are on their worst run of form ever under Pep Guardiola with only one victory in their last 10 matches. It’s too soon to say that the dynasty is coming to an end, but it’s the first time in years that they’ve felt like they’re in the same league as their cross-city rivals.
But this is what makes rivalries amazing, because, with a victory, the Red Devils can deal a critical blow to City. This loss would mean more than the average loss. Without Rodri, City’s defense has plummeted from one of the best in the league in allowing less than one goal per game to firmly mid table. And they haven’t compensated for that with scoring more goals, leaving City in a tough position as they look for ways to stop this doom spiral.
United’s defense from open play has improved under Amorim, going from allowing 1.67 xG per game to 1.29 xG per game as a shift to a back three has suited them. It has also gotten the best out of Amad Diallo who has created excellent chances while transitioning to a wing back role under Amorim. This will be one of United’s biggest tests, but they learned a lot from facing Arsenal, and losing 2-0, that can be translated to facing City.
They won’t get lost in the moment, but with City’s fragile state, if they go behind early, there may not be enough fight to come back. It used to feel inevitable that if City were behind in a match that they’d come out ahead, but in drawing Crystal Palace, that was shattered and Guardiola needs to find a way to pick up the pieces.
He could be regretting extending his contract for another season, as even the most successful dynasties don’t last forever. If City don’t win this match it also becomes fair to question when their next victory will be. Their remaining matches of the year see them face Aston Villa, Everton, and Leicester City. While Leicester and Everton are at the lower reaches of the table, City has struggled facing those types of teams.
Rico Lewis will also miss the match against United due to a red card suspension, while the goal keeping situation is also uncertain with Ederson not starting the last two Premier League matches. It’s a perfect storm of things happening at the Etihad which makes it harder to identify a root cause of where it all went wrong. This is far too much to chalk up to only the absence of Rodri, which is why this is starting to feel like the end of the Guardiola era, even if he remains on the sideline for a while longer.
A loss to United will only make those whispers louder, and that’s where United can deal their rivals quite a critical blow before also giving themselves confidence before facing Tottenham in the EFL Cup midweek. That’s Amorim’s best route to silverware and also a great way to show that the power is shifting back to the red side of Manchester.
How to watch and odds
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 15 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Stadium — Manchester, England
- TV: USA | Live stream: Fubo TV (Try for free)
- Odds: Manchester City -165; Draw +340; Manchester United +380
