Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in the history of North American horse racing, but one career achievement that has continued to elude him has been winning the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen has sent 26 horses to the starting gates at the Run for the Roses, but hasn’t earned a garland of roses. At the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs, Asmussen will have two more chances to win, and they’ll start side by side following the draw for the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions. Publisher and Tiztastic drew the No. 13 and No. 14 posts on Saturday and both 2025 Kentucky Derby horses are 20-1 longshots in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Meanwhile, Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the 3-1 favorite, with the Kentucky Derby post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Menez is not keen on taking closers to win the Kentucky Derby 2025 since they are dependent on a fast pace up front and generally lose ground on the far turn.
Trainer Mark Casse has not started a horse in the Kentucky Derby in four years and is winless with 10 starters in eight editions of the Run for the Roses. Sandman raced twice at Churchill Downs in the fall, but he did not finish better than third in the Iroquois Stakes or Street Sense. “He is coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby, but in that race he was the beneficiary of an enormous pace meltdown, which made his 2.5-length win look more impressive than it actually was,” Menez told SportsLine. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Sired by Liam’s Map out of Scat Daddy mare Linda, Burnham Square broke his maiden in the third and final race of his two-year-old season at Gulfstream Park. He won the Holy Bull Stakes there just over a month later to start his three-year-old season, but suffered a surprising fourth-place setback at the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Burnham Square rebounded to score a win at the Blue Grass Stakes that qualified him for the Run for the Roses. His two graded stakes wins make him one of the more proven 2025 Kentucky Derby closers. Having jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is also an advantage since the Churchill Downs-based rider comfortably guided Mystik Dan through a crowd and squeezed by on the inside to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby as an 18-1 longshot. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.