In horse racing vernacular, maidens are thoroughbreds that have never won a race. Just three maidens have ever won the Kentucky Derby, none in the last 91 years. The 2025 Kentucky Derby field is composed of several accomplished 2025 Kentucky Derby horses, but there is one maiden, Publisher. He’s 0-for-7 in his horse racing career and is coming off a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby. Before immediately bypassing Publisher with your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, it may be beneficial to know that he’s the son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Publisher has the pedigree for his first-ever victory to come on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The horse is a 20-1 longshot, meaning there are nine horses that are even bigger 2025 Kentucky Derby underdogs than the winless colt. The latest Kentucky Derby odds have Journalism as the 3-1 favorite, with Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) also top 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Demling is fading Sandman, even though he is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. The horse has won three of eight career starts but could be one that benefits from extra distance. He finished in the money but failed to win his three starts at 1 1/16 miles, but then prevailed in his lone start at 1 1/8 miles at the Arkansas Derby. That’s an encouraging sign for the 1 1/4 miles Kentucky Derby, although Sandman hasn’t finished among the top two in any of his prior three races at Churchill Downs.
Both trainer Mark Casse and jockey Jose Ortiz have had at least nine prior Kentucky Derby starters. So while they’re not lacking in experience, neither has prevailed at The Run for the Roses. The horse’s sire, Tapit, was a G1 winner back in his day and has been named North America’s leading sire in three different years. Tapit has produced four horses that have won Triple Crown races but has yet to sire a horse that’s claimed the Kentucky Derby. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sovereignty. The second-place finisher in the Florida Derby is the oddsmakers’ second choice at 5-1 odds, behind only Journalism (3-1). He lost by a length-and-a-quarter to Tappan Street, who was ruled out of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025 field due to injury.
Sovereignty is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and enters with two wins and two second place finishes in five career starts. Under regular rider Junior Alvarado, the three-year-old colt could be flying from the back as the horses come down the stretch. With a projected speed dual up front, he may be able to pass tired horses late and finish near the top.
Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Trainer Michael McCarthy made his Kentucky Derby debut last season with Endlessly and wound up with a respectable ninth-place finish. Jockey Umberto Rispoli was also in the saddle for that trip and that was his best finish after placing 14th with Brooklyn Strong in 2021. However, the expectations will be higher for both with this Santa Anita Derby winner.
Sired by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin out of Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, Journalism debuted with a third-place finish at Santa Anita in October of last year. He broke his maiden just three weeks later at Del Mar and has since ripped off three graded-stakes wins in a row. However, he’s never raced outside of California and he’s only raced against small fields, so the shipment to Kentucky and 19 competitors could be a shock. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse profiles
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza