Fantasy Football Rankings 2023: Sleepers, breakouts, busts by same NFL model that nailed Samuel's down season

The countdown is on for the Week 1 NFL schedule, including the first Thursday night game between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. There is plenty of hype surrounding Detroit’s offense after they broke out in 2022, making Jared Goff and his receiving corps skyrocket in the 2023 Fantasy football rankings. The defending Super Bowl champions are coming in hot, however, and Patrick Mahomes is still one of the most coveted 2023 Fantasy football picks at quarterback. Mahomes is a first-round selection in most 2023 Fantasy football drafts, but is Goff being undervalued in the 2023 Fantasy football projections?

You’ll need to target 2023 Fantasy football sleepers and 2023 Fantasy football breakouts in drafts while avoiding 2023 Fantasy football busts. Before setting your 2023 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2023 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, the model accurately predicted that 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel was being dramatically overvalued. Samuel was the sixth receiver coming off the board on average, but the model had him ranked outside the top 10. The result: Samuel followed up a season in which he had 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns by producing just 864 yards and five scores.

The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as another sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor’s enormous season in 2021. Additionally, it’s called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.

The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The 2023 Fantasy football PPR rankings and 2023 Fantasy football standard projections update multiple times daily, so you’re always getting the best Fantasy football advice.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2023, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them. 

Top 2023 Fantasy football sleepers

One of the 2023 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Packers running back AJ Dillon. The bruising back has served as a change of pace to Aaron Jones over the last two years and finished as the RB21 (2021) and RB26 (2022). However, multiple factors could lead to a career-best season from Dillon in 2023.

One is that he’s in a contract year, which is the ultimate motivator for any player about to hit the free agent market. Second, the quarterback change in Green Bay means the Packers are more likely to lean on the run with Jordan Love under center instead of Aaron Rodgers. Dillon had 17 carries inside the 10-yard-line last season compared to Jones’ nine, so he’s already the preferred goal line back. The model likes Dillon more than Javonte Williams in its 2023 Fantasy football RB rankings, despite the Packer being drafted 12 spots later on average. See more Fantasy football sleepers 2023 here.

Top 2023 Fantasy football breakouts

The model is also projecting Chiefs receiver Skyy Moore as one of its 2023 Fantasy football breakouts. The 22-year-old only scored one touchdown during his rookie season, although that came in the Super Bowl. He finished his 2022 campaign with 22 receptions for just 250 yards and has room to grow his resume now that JuJu Smith-Schuster has moved on to the Patriots.

Moore’s biggest competition in Kansas City’s receiving corps is Kadarius Toney, who is still sidelined after having surgery to repair a torn meniscus over the summer. Even if Toney is healthy to start the season, Moore is worth a look in the 2023 Fantasy football WR rankings. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2023 here.

Top 2023 Fantasy football busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III as one of its 2023 Fantasy football busts. This might look like a misprint for a talented back who finished second in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year voting after rushing for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns, but there are limitations to Walker’s game.

Walker has burst (17 runs of 15 yards or more) but he was also tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage 54 times (fourth most among NFL running backs) on 228 rushing attempts. He also only managed 27 receptions for 165 yards. Those shortcomings as a short-yardage back and receiver are why Seattle spent a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet. Seattle is in win-now mode, so they didn’t draft Charbonnet to sit. That’s a big reason why Walker is ranked behind backs like Breece Hall and David Montgomery, who are going at least a round later on average. See more Fantasy football busts 2023 here.

How to find proven 2023 Fantasy football football rankings

SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising quarterback you aren’t even thinking about being taken in the middle rounds of 2023 Fantasy football drafts. This quarterback is listed as a shocking top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers. You can only see who it is, and the 2023 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2023 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.

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