Duke vs. Virginia odds, score prediction: 2024 college basketball picks, March 2 best bets from proven model

No. 10 Duke will aim for its seventh win its last eight games when it hosts Virginia in an ACC battle on Saturday night. The Blue Devils (22-6, 13-4 ACC) bounced back from their emotional loss at Wake Forest with an 84-59 win over Louisville on Wednesday. They are in second place in the ACC standings, sitting one game behind North Carolina with a rematch looming next weekend. Virginia (21-8, 12-6) snapped its two-game losing streak with a 72-68 win at Boston College earlier this week. 

Tipoff is set for 6 p.m. ET on Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke is favored by 9.5 points in the latest Duke vs. Virginia odds, while the over/under is 124 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Virginia vs. Duke picks, you’ll want to see the NCAA Basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 17 of the 2023-24 season on a 139-94 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $2,300 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 25-14 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Virginia vs. Duke. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the game:

  • Duke vs. Virginia spread: Duke -9.5
  • Duke vs. Virginia over/under: 124 points
  • Duke vs. Virginia money line: Duke -499, Virginia +375
  • Duke vs. Virginia picks: See picks here

Why Duke can cover

Duke is within one game of North Carolina for first place in the ACC standings, so it has plenty to play for heading down the stretch. The Blue Devils regained their focus on Wednesday following last weekend’s loss to Wake Forest and a court storming that was talked about for days. They crushed Louisville in an 84-59 final on Wednesday, as senior guard Jeremy Roach scored 19 points on 8 of 11 shooting.  

Sophomore forward Mark Mitchell added 17 points and seven rebounds, while sophomore center Kyle Filipowski added nine points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Duke has dominated Virginia at home over the past few decades, winning 18 of the last 20 meetings at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Cavaliers have only covered the spread once in their last five games. 

Why Virginia can cover

Virginia certainly needs this game more than Duke as far as the NCAA Tournament picture is concerned, especially since it has lost three of its last five games. The Cavaliers snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-68 win at Boston College on Wednesday, covering the spread as 1.5-point favorites. Senior guard Reece Beekman had 18 points, eight assists and five rebounds, shooting 5 of 8 from the floor and 8 of 10 from the charity stripe. 

The Cavaliers have also recorded four other road victories in conference play, including a win at Clemson as 4.5-point underdogs last month. Beekman leads the team with 13.9 points and 5.9 assists per game, while sophomore guard Isaac McKneely is adding 12.3 points per game. Virginia has covered the spread in 11 of its last 16 games against Duke. See which team to pick here.

How to make Duke vs. Virginia picks

The model has simulated Virginia vs. Duke 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 139-94 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.

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