FRISCO, Texas — The New York Giants (2-9) against the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) on Thanksgiving is technically a rematch from Dallas’ 20-15 road win in Week 4, but there is a noticeable difference for both teams nine weeks later.
Both teams’ starting quarterbacks from Week 4 — Daniel Jones for New York and Dak Prescott for Dallas — won’t be starting for either squad on Thanksgiving Day; Jones has been released while Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9 at the Atlanta Falcons. Cooper Rush has taken the place of Prescott, while last season’s viral sensation Tommy DeVito has taken the place of Jones, but will miss Thursday’s game due to a forearm injury.
Will the Cowboys begin a winning streak with a victory against the Giants after their 34-26 upset win over the Washington Commanders? Or will the Giants rebound from a deflating 30-7 Week 12 loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and stun a Cowboys squad starting to get some swagger back following a five-game losing streak? Let’s dig into this matchup and project a victor.
Cowboys vs. Giants where to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 28 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Channel: FOX | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
NFL betting odds: Cowboys -3.5; O/U 37 (via Caesars)
Check out the latest Caesars promo code to get in the game.
When the Giants have the ball
The Giants are a team in turmoil. They had multiple players, namely wide receiver Malik Nabers and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, use the word “soft” to describe the state of their team. Nabers also specifically critiqued head coach Brian Daboll’s play-calling and the team’s inability to get him the football after he recorded no targets in the first half of a game for the first time in Week 12.
There is also uncertainty regarding their quarterback situation because DeVito won’t play on Thursday after being a limited practice participant Tuesday with a right forearm injury. 2019 second-round pick Drew Lock, who signed with the Giants on a one-year deal in free agency, will start. Both players’ mobility is what Dallas’ defense is focusing on.
“Both of them are pretty mobile, so I feel like they will get the same game plan,” cornerback Jourdan Lewis said.
“[DeVito’s] ability to make plays in and out of the pocket is a real focus for us,” head coach Mike McCarthy added.
One other new piece in Week 13 is Giants fifth-round rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. He received just four carries for two yards in the Week 4 matchup while Devin Singletary was the lead back with 24 rushing yards on 14 carries. Since Week 5, Tracy has been the lead back for the Giants, and his 558 rushing yards in that span rank as the ninth-most in the NFL. Tracy’s 3.2 yards after contact per carry are the 12th-most in the NFL, and it’s safe to say the Cowboys’ 31st-ranked run defense will see a heavy dose of Tracy.
New York possessed the football for about 11 more minutes than Dallas (35:37 to 24:23) in the Cowboys’ 20-15 road win over the Giants in Week 4. That time of possession margin is the worst of Dallas’ 2024 season, and Week 4 marked the only time this year its opponent possessed the football more than 10 minutes more than they did.
“I think his ability to generate offense RAC, YAC, however you define it,” McCarthy said when asked about what stands out about Tracy. “The biggest thing I see is the combination of the run and the pass. … What I see is I think they are trying to get a good balance of run and pass. You go back to the last game up there, they slowed it down. The pace of that game was very methodical. They tried to hold on to the ball and go long drives. … I think they did do a good job in the first game of controlling the clock.”
When they do decide to throw the football, everyone’s eyes will be on Nabers, whose 103 targets this season are the third-most in the entire NFL. The 2024 NFL Draft’s No. 6 overall pick racked up a career-high 12 catches for 115 receiving yards in the Week 4 meeting against Dallas, but he hasn’t totaled 75 or more receiving yards in a game since. That’s one of the reasons why he is dissatisfied with Daboll’s playcalling.
“He wants the ball, his aggression,” Lewis said of Nabers. “He understands how to locate the ball. … He’s really a smooth route runner. He understands where the defense is and where to settle in the defense. He’s a poised pass catcher out there, and he knows that. He knows he’s the guy. It’s dangerous when a guy that young knows that he’s supposed to be getting the ball, and he’s supposed to be making those explosive plays. I feel like that’s the key to this game.”
When the Cowboys have the ball
What the Cowboys need to do to beat up on the Giants is simple: run the ball. New York is surrendering the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (147.9). The problem is Dallas’ run game is the second-worst in the NFL, averaging just 82.5 rushing yards per game. However, lead back Rico Dowdle plowed ahead for the second-most rushing yards (86) and carries (19) in any game of his career Sunday in Washington, perhaps showing the Cowboys are on the cusp of finding some sort of rhythm on the ground.
Dropping back to pass against New York could be a risky proposition for Dallas with a rookie at center (third-round pick Cooper Beebe), and with right guard Zack Martin (ankle and shoulder injuries) set to miss his second consecutive game. No interior defender has more sacks (nine) than Giants two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, and no team has a higher defensive sack rate generated (10.6%) than the Giants.
“Dexter, he’s always had our attention I know as long as I’ve been here,” McCarthy said. “I think he’s maybe the top or one of the top inside players in the league. Just have a tremendous amount of respect for him. But yeah, I think like anything, not only in our division, if you want to be a playoff football team, you have to have it on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Guys like Dexter Lawrence is a great example.”
However, the risk may just be worth it for the chance to put the football in either NFL receptions leader CeeDee Lamb’s hands, or “fastest person on this planet” KaVontae Turpin. Lamb and Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase are the two scariest covers in the league based on how opposing defenses play them. Lamb’s 28 targets when double-teamed are tied for the most in the NFL with Chase, per Pro Football Focus, and Lamb’s 132 routes run while double-teamed are the second-most in the NFL behind Chase’s 170, according to PFF. Defenses gravitating towards him have led to big plays for Turpin, who took a slant route 64 yards for a touchdown against the Houston Texans in Week 11, and tight end Luke Schoonmaker, who hauled in a wide open, 22-yard touchdown with under 5 minutes, 30 seconds to play Sunday that put Dallas up, 20-9, late in the fourth quarter against the Commanders.
“I love it, I love it, and I can’t preach it enough here,” Lamb said of teammates scoring when he is doubled. “I tell the guys, ‘Make them guard me. If you’re going to give me 1-on-1, that’s cool. Let me do what I got to do and then at some point, they’re going to bring another guy, and then y’all take over, you’re 1–on-1.’ I know when I first came (in as a rookie in 2020) I obviously had [Amari] Coop[er] and MG [Michael Gallup], so [opponents] couldn’t double team anybody. I took it as disrespect. So I kind of told those guys like, ‘Bro, if they’re double-teaming me, take it as disrespect if they feel their guy can guard y’all 1-on-1 with no help.’ That’s crazy. So for that, I’m happy for the guys man. I’m always happy. I’m, if not the happiest, when Turp scores.”
Prediction
Dallas scores first and then punishes DeVito or Lock with a Micah Parsons-led pass rush that helps generate multiple turnovers. Rush plays a turnover-free game for the second week in a row, and the Cowboys roll to a multi-score victory as well as their 15th win in their last 16 against the Giants. Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 13
Bonus: Larry Hartstein is on a heater betting Cowboys games, as he’s won 27 of his past 37 bets involving America’s team. While he’s leaning under for this NFC East matchup, he shows a lot of value on the spread. To see which team he’s backing, head on over to SportsLine.
