Bowl projections: Alabama moves to 3-seed in College Football Playoff field, Ohio State replaces Georgia

There’s never a dull moment in the SEC.

Let’s start at the top, where Ole Miss knocked Georgia from the top of the conference standings with a convincing 28-10 victory. It’s a win that puts the Rebels into contention for a College Football Playoff berth, but I do not have them projected there … yet.  The home loss to Kentucky, which may not finish with more than four wins, stands out in comparison with other potential two-loss teams.

The loss for Georgia combined with wins by Alabama and Tennessee leave me with Texas finishing first in the SEC regular season and a six-car pileup behind them of teams with two conference losses. I had to dig deep into the tiebreaker to emerge with an opponent for the Longhorns, and that team is the Crimson Tide, who would earn the conference championship berth based on the record of their conference opponents. I also project Alabama to win the SEC title game over Texas and earn a 3-seed in the playoff field.

Ohio State moves up to the top seed in the wake of Georgia’s loss. BYU is projected to finish undefeated and get the No. 2 seed. I believe the two-loss difference between BYU and Alabama should be enough for the Cougars to finish ahead Alabama, which is how the committee placed them this week.

I had previously been projecting Iowa State to be the Big 12 champ, but the Cyclones lost their second game in a row on Saturday and will need help to get to the title game now. Colorado is in the driver’s seat to join BYU after a win at Texas Tech on Saturday.

The fourth No. 1 seed is still Miami despite the loss Saturday to Georgia Tech. Miami may have to go into the ACC title game as the lower seed against SMU, but I still like the Hurricanes to emerge victorious from that matchup.

In this projection, Miami also has to win a tiebreaker to get to the ACC title game. The Canes get the nod over Clemson because of a better record against common opponents.

Quarterfinals

First round

The home teams in the first-round games are familiar names. Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Penn State are projected to the 5-8 seeds.  The Ducks are expected to take their first loss of the season against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and the fifth automatic qualifier, Boise State, round out the 12-team field. The Hoosiers are making their first appearance in these projections despite their first close call of the season in a win over Michigan on Saturday. Well, that and the possibility of not having defeated a team with more than six wins at the end of the season. The committee seemed impressed with them in the initial rankings release on Tuesday, so I expect that will be the same this week as well.

One thing that is different this week is that BYU is in the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 champion. That bowl is home to both the SEC and Big 12, and the higher-rated champion of those two leagues gets that as a preferred spot. That means Alabama is in the Peach Bowl and Miami is off to the Fiesta.

Be sure to check out the CBS Sports bowl eligibility tracker. That is where you can see which teams have already qualified for the postseason, which have one win to go and those than can try again next season.

This bracket projection has three teams in it that are projected to only get to five wins. We’ll see if that holds up. There were also three teams in the bowls last season that normally would not have been eligible. 

Don’t see your team? Check out Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.