Bitcoin ETF 'FOMO Rally' Could Send Price to All-Time High: Bernstein



Bitcoin is starting to look like the hot commodity on the market again after the launch of the much-anticipated spot Bitcoin ETFs. With so much enthusiasm surrounding these products, the question becomes how much more can “number go up.” 

The answer is, of course, unknown, but that won’t stop analysts from speculating, including those at the $725 billion asset manager AllianceBernstein. They predict it’s possible Bitcoin will breach a new all-time high this year.

“We think the best days of Bitcoin are ahead, and the ETF-led Bitcoin market is poised for what we expect to be a FOMO rally,” analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note circulated to clients on Monday.

The AllianceBernstein analysts said the market quickly priced in the new ETFs upon approval, but it has not yet accounted for the level of ETF inflows or the supply crunch that will come with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

The halving refers to an event, baked into Bitcoin’s code, that occurs roughly every four years and is designed to keep Bitcoin’s inflation rate in check. While there will only ever be 21 million BTC minted, the halving slows the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market by cutting rewards to Bitcoin miners, the individuals responsible for securing the Bitcoin network, in half.

Between higher demand and an expected cut in supply, the analysts say that investors may soon look to cash in on Bitcoin out of FOMO, or a “fear of missing out” on potentially lucrative gains. 

The analysts note that much of the inflows into the new ETFs originates from retail investors, specifically Bitcoin “believers” who they say have found ways to get it into their brokerage accounts. They point out that retail interest in this group still stands far below previous rallies in 2017 and 2021, but they suggest more funds may yet flow in from this group.

While the analysts acknowledge a group of “disbelievers” are still sitting out on investing, another group of “curious investors” are expressing interest in learning more about Bitcoin. Taken together, they predict that these “new Bitcoin enthusiasts” will  allocate capital “in the coming days.”

By any metric, the spot ETFs have been a historic success. In the weeks since the Securities and Exchange Commission greenlit ten spot ETFs to operate, three of themBlackRock, Fidelity and most recently Ark Invest’s 21Shareshave already accumulated more than $1 billion in assets, with BlackRock and Fidelity each holding about $3 billion.

Bitcoin’s price has steadily risen as interest in these ETFs grows, rising 8.5% since the start of the year. Prices sank lower amid a steady outflow of funds from Grayscale after its conversion from a trust to a spot ETF, but those flows have slowed, and Bitcoin even crossed the $50,000 mark earlier this week before slinking lower. 

The price of Bitcoin is currently hovering just above $49,000.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.



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