Horse racing is similar to tennis in the way that some perform better on certain surfaces. Two 30-1 longshots in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field will race on dirt for the first time on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Flying Mohawk and Final Gambit have only competed on turf or a synthetic surface to this point. Transitioning to dirt undoubtedly plays a role in the two 2025 Kentucky Derby horses being tied for the biggest longshots in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. The three biggest favorites, Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1), have never raced on any surface but dirt. We’ll see if it’s a smooth transition for Final Gambit and Flying Mohawk when the 2025 Kentucky Derby field goes to post at 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.
In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. At 6-1, Sandman is the third-favorite, just as his sire, Tapit, was in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Tapit disappointed, finishing ninth in what was his first, and only, start at longer than 1 1/8 miles. Sandman will also make his first start at that longer distance on Saturday, and his pedigree doesn’t suggest he can handle it.
Not only does Sandman have pedigree concerns, but he has warning flags surrounding his 2025 Kentucky Derby connections. Trainer Mark Casse has the most Kentucky Derby starters (10) in race history without an in-the-money finish. As for jockey Jose Ortiz, he’s 0-for-9 in his Kentucky Derby career and his performances have gotten worse over time. His first five rides produced an average finish of 6.8, but his last four mounts have had an average finish of 13.5. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Luxor Cafe won a pair of races as part of the Japan Road to the Derby, including the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29. He dominated that prep race by five lengths, giving him a four-race winning streak entering the Derby.
Luxor Cafe is one of three horses in the field who is the son of a Triple Crown winner, as he was sired by American Pharoah. Japanese horses have proven themselves worthy of the pre-race buzz in recent years, particularly after Forever Young finished third as part of a three-way photo finish last year. Yu likes how Luxor Cafe’s stalking running style matches up in this field, so she likes him as a longshot on Saturday. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse previews
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza