The PGA Tour season is beginning to pick up steam, and with the 2025 Players Championship fast approaching, the key question everyone’s asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win at TPC Sawgrass? With a tremendous field featuring most of the best golfers in the world in attendance, we should be in for an epic ride beginning with Thursday’s first round.
While The Players does not hold a “major championship” designation, but it’s nevertheless a huge event on the annual golf calendar as the PGA Tour’s flagship tournament. The $25 million purse and $4.5 million winner’s share is more than will be payed out at the Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open or Open Championship this year.
Scottie Scheffler, the defending Players champion, enters with plenty of momentum from another dynamite 2024, though his start to the 2025 season has been less than ideal. Collin Morikawa has been playing incredible golf of late, but he fell back Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to relinquish a lead he held for the better part of two rounds. Tiger Woods will not be in attendance at TPC Sawgrass, though Rory McIlroy will be looking to put his best foot forward with one month to go until he competes for the elusive green jacket at Augusta National Golf Club.
So, what is going to happen this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts.
You can also check out a full slate of Players Championship odds to help set your expectations of the field, Players Championship tee times and pairings for Round 1 on Thursday and the entire Players Championship TV schedule for the week so you know exactly when and where to watch all 72 holes.
2025 Players Championship expert picks, predictions
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Collin Morikawa (16-1): The Arnold Palmer Invitational loss may still sting, but Morikawa will get right back onto the horse and ride into the winner’s circle after traveling a few hours North. The two-time major champion was sensational from tee to green at Bay Hill, and that will carry over to TPC Sawgrass where his blend of accurate driving and pinpoint iron play will allow him to rise to the top of the leaderboard. His Players Championship history is mixed, but he has a number of quality rounds under his belt. Given the way he is trending, he should be able to string four together this week.
Sleeper — Justin Rose (150-1): The former world No. 1 can still keep up with the big boys on golf courses that require more than just physical skill. One of the best course managers in the game, Rose will rise to the challenge that is TPC Sawgrass like he has many times in the past. The Englishman has two top-10 finishes and two missed cuts since the tournament moved to March drawing parallels to his current season where he has two top 10s (Pebble Beach and Bay Hill) and two missed cuts (both at Torrey Pines).
Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: What’s throwing me off the scent of Scheffler to take home the title is the level of difficulty involved in winning any golf tournament three years in a row, let alone the Players Championship where Scheffler became the first ever to successfully defend with his title last season. The world No. 1 figured out the big stick at Bay Hill where he led the field from off the tee and the rest of his game is now beginning to follow suit. His poor putting at Arnie’s Place may introduce some questions, but his tee-to-green game is good enough to finish inside the top 10 without the aid of a cooperative flat stick.
Star who definitely won’t win — Justin Thomas: There have not been many to win The Players twice, and Thomas isn’t going to add his name to that list (at least not this year). While the tee-to-green presence is strong, there are still some holes in his game — big misses off the tee, big numbers on the scorecard and short misses on the greens — especially when the test ramps up. Since his 2022 PGA Championship victory, Thomas has one top 10 (2024 PGA), six missed cuts and no other finishes inside the top 30 in the majors or The Players.
Surprise prediction — Jordan Spieth contends: His Players form stinks, but something is clicking at the moment. Spieth continues to drive the ball effectively, and while his iron play can come and go, he is making putts again — something he was not doing from 2022-24. A top-10 finish at the WM Phoenix Open was not all too surprising given his history at TPC Scottsdale, but another such result at PGA National in his debut appearance was more than welcomed.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 268 (-20)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-4)
2025 Players Championship predictions, picks, favorites: One of these nine golfers will win at TPC Sawgrass
Patrick McDonald
Josh Mullenix, Early Wedge producer
Winner — Scottie Scheffler (5-1): His start to 2025 has been a little turbulent by his standards, but he still has three top 11 finishes in four starts. He’s going to make someone else stare him down and win the tournament, something only Stephan Jaeger has done the last two years. TPC Sawgrass will make the winner hit three to five well executed golf shots on Sunday down the stretch, and no one executes better than the World No. 1.
Sleeper — Daniel Berger (55-1): He’s done nothing but bank top 25 finishes since the RSM Classic in November. After a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open where the putter let him down, he’s gaining across the bag and just finished T15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite opening with a 78 on Thursday. It’s his first Players Championship in three years, but he finished among the top 15 in both 2021 and 2022. One thing is for sure about Berger: He has the confidence to win this week and his game suggests the same.
Top 10 lock — Collin Moriakwa: There’s a clear closing problem with Morikawa — look no further than Bay Hill last Sunday. But that’s basically his only problem at this juncture. He leads the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained tee to green and is a measly sixth in approach. As one of the best iron players in the world with the driving accuracy to hit from the fairway all week long, it’s hard to see him not banking a quality finish. I just highly doubt he’ll figure out how to win again with the pressure of TPC Sawgrass’ closing stretch staring him in the face.
Star who definitely won’t win — Patrick Cantlay: The golf world is perpetually underwhelmed by Cantlay even though last week’s T31 was just his second finish outside of the top 25 since last year’s Memorial Tournament. However, he also finished outside the top 30 at Pebble Beach. He’s battling a different thing every week; lost strokes with the putter and off the tee at the Arnold Palmer, the short game was bad at the Genesis and the putter disappeared at Pebble Beach. Before that he started the year with some shaky iron play. More than anything, Cantlay isn’t going to win this week because Cantlay doesn’t win anywhere. We are now 933 days removed from his last victory at the 2022 BMW Championship.
Surprise prediction — Two of the six betting favorites will miss the cut: The volatility of success at The Players is one of the reasons this tournament is so fun. Every year, past champions and big names find the water one too many times and miss the cut. Two of Scheffler, Morikawa, Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Åberg and Tommy Fleetwood will not even play the weekend. Maybe McIlroy brings a wayward driver like he did last year. Thomas’s putter is nonexistent. Åberg’s short game and approach is a little sloppy. TPC Sawgrass is primed to turn little imperfections into a weekend off, even for the best in the field.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 272 (-16)
Winner’s Sunday score: 70 (-2)
Adam Silverstein, senior director of editorial
Winner — Collin Morikawa (16-1): Scheffler is the deserving favorite at TPC Sawgrass given his dominance of the course, but Morikawa is the value play coming off his second-place finish (that should have been a win) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. His precision and accuracy will do him well in Ponte Vedra Beach, and simply put, he’s a trustworthy start who is unlikely to go wayward like so many others might. Scheffler winning three straight is certainly possible given his immense skill, but he still needs to put it all together in 2025.
Sleeper — Shane Lowry (35-1): Granted, I might stretching the definition of “sleeper” here, but Lowry is basically a top-10 lock at TPC Sawgrass. At some point, he’s going to break through to hoist the trophy and $4.5 million check. He’s finished among the top 11 in each of his last two starts and seems to be continuing to surge off a successful 2024. I’d rather back him at these odds than someone twice as long who is far less likely to win.
Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: Whether Morikawa struggles to close or he puts his game together at the right time, it’s hard to imagine Scheffler not being among the top five once 72 holes are played at TPC Sawgrass. Being given twice as many spots in which to back a guy who has already defended his title at The Players feels generous, but I’ll take it.
Star who definitely won’t win — Xander Schauffele: The game is just not there, and at 18-1, it would be foolhardy to back him (though that is twice as much value as he’ll get at majors later this year). Schauffele finished T30 at The Sentry and T40 last week after barely making the Bay Hill cut on the number. Going from that to the winner’s circle coming out of this strong of a field is highly unlikely.
Surprise prediction — Rickie Fowler contends on Sunday: There is nothing from his season thus far that points to Fowler making a run at TPC Sawgrass, though he does have two finishes near the top 10 this year, and obviously he’s won at this course before. He’s at 90-1 on the oddsboard and coming off a week where he did not play after not receiving an expected exemption into the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Talk about motivation.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 274 (-14)
Winner’s Sunday score: 69 (-3)
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