I give up.
There is nothing I can do to get past the miserable ways my NFL picks have been going this year. I tried to change things up a bit last week, and it got worse. I went 3-9-1 against the spread and 8-5 straight up. That brings my season ATS record to 90-114-4 and my straight-up record to 128-80.
I remember a month ago when I hoped to get my ATS record to .500. That ship looks like it has sailed. Heck, I’ll take a winning week right now.
As one of my co-workers said this week, “quit over-thinking it.” So that’s what I did this week. Here’s hoping it can turn things around.
It’s too late for much celebrating this year, but, please, I am begging for one winning ATS week. Just one? Please.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
This is an enormous division game for both teams. The loser is in big trouble. The 49ers showed their pride last week against the Bears, while the Rams are coming off a big victory over the Bills. On a short week, it’s always tough to go out on the road. The 49ers will be ready for this one. They take it behind a good showing from Brock Purdy.
Pick: 49ers 28, Rams 23
Bonus: SportsLine expert Micah Roberts, who is on a 26-6 roll betting San Francisco 49ers games, disagrees with Prisco on the total of this game, but what about the spread? Check out who Roberts is backing over at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Panthers are favored here as they’ve played well the past few weeks. Bryce Young is getting better. The question for Dallas is how focused it will be after that tough home loss to the Bengals. I think the Cowboys will be, and I think Micah Parsons and the defense will play well.
Pick: Cowboys 20, Panthers 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs are playing for the top seed, while the Browns are playing for their vacation plans. That matters. The Chiefs haven’t looked great all season, but they find ways to win games. They will find a way here as Jameis Winston turns it over a few times for point-blank scores. Chiefs win another close one.
Pick: Chiefs 21, Browns 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Texans are off a bye, while the Dolphins are coming off an overtime victory over the Jets. The Miami defense didn’t play well in that game, but I think they bounce back here. The Texans just haven’t looked right on offense. Tua Tagovailoa leads Miami past the Texans.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Texans 27
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up more than $7,000 on NFL picks since its inception, is fading Prisco and taking the Texans to cover against the Dolphins as part of a five-team parlay. Check out the other four legs by heading over to SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is the dog game of the day, but the Jaguars are coming off a victory, while the Jets lost at Miami in overtime. At least the Jets showed up in that one. The offense looked decent. I think that will carry over as Aaron Rodgers and the Jets beat Mac Jones and the Jaguars.
Pick: Jets 24, Jaguars 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Commanders come off a bye, while the Saints are coming off a victory over the Giants. But they will be likely be without inured quarterback Derek Carr in this one. That’s tough to overcome. They won’t be able to against a good Commanders team as Jayden Daniels is healthier after the bye. Commanders take it.
Pick: Commanders 30, Saints 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens are coming off a bye, while the Giants are playing out the string. The Giants don’t do a lot on offense, which is a problem against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson and his offensive group will score a bunch here against a depleted Giants defense. Ravens big.
Pick: Ravens 34, Giants 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Bengals are coming off a road victory Monday night at Dallas where they played better on defense. We know Joe Burrow and the offense will score here. Can the Titans keep up? No. They scored six points last week against a bad Jacksonville defense. They will score more here, but not enough to beat Burrow and gang.
Pick: Bengals 30, Titans 17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are off a bye to play a team that has lost three straight. Kyler Murray hasn’t played well the past three weeks, but that will change here. The Arizona offense will get back on track as it gets a victory that will keep it in the playoff chase.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Patriots 20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is an enormous game in terms of the playoffs. Both teams are coming off a bye, so no edge there. The Broncos have the better defense, which will be the difference in this one. Look for them to turn over Anthony Richardson as Bo Nix and the Denver offense plays the cleaner game. Broncos win it.
Pick: Broncos 22, Colts 16
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week, featuring two high-scoring offenses and two MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Jared Goff at quarterback. Both defenses have issues, which should make this a shootout. The Bills are playing consecutive road games, which isn’t easy, but I think they will find a way to pull off a small upset behind Allen.
Pick: Bills 37, Lions 35
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is a long trip for the Bucs against a good team coming off a loss. I think Jim Harbaugh will have his group back focused here. Baker Mayfield is facing a tough Chargers defense. The Chargers will get the best of that matchup as they get back on the winning track.
Pick: Chargers 27, Bucs 21
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The battle of Pennsylvania is between two physical teams that get after it on both sides of the ball. The Steelers don’t run it as well as Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, which will be the difference in this one. Look for Barkley to lead the Eagles as the Philadelphia defense limits Russell Wilson.
Pick: Eagles 24, Steelers 17
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
This is a big game for both teams. The Packers are coming off a Thursday night loss on the road against the Lions, while the Seahawks are home after winning two straight road games. The Seattle defense has really played well as of late, but this is a tough offense to defend. Green Bay’s Jordan Love will get the best of that defense. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 28, Seahawks 24
Bonus: SportsLine expert R.J. White, who is on a 74-31-2 roll in games involving Green Bay, is leaning under in this pivotal NFC showdown on “Sunday Night Football.” He’s more confident in one side covering the spread, and you can see who he’s picking at SportsLine.
Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo try for free)
The Bears are out on the road for a second straight week after getting blasted by the 49ers. They didn’t play well. Minnesota is rolling. Sam Darnold is playing at a high level, which I think will continue here. The Vikings will throw a ton of looks at Caleb Williams, which will lead to turnovers. It’s ugly.
Pick: Vikings 33, Bears 17
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)
There is some uncertainty about Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s health here with a bone bruise. As for the Falcons, Kirk Cousins has been bad the past month and this will be a tough spot to bounce back in for him — no matter who plays quarterback for the Raiders. I think the Las Vegas defense will win this for the Raiders.
Pick: Raiders 21, Falcons 20
