The NFL always brings the goods. No matter how tame a game or weekend may look, there’s drama lurking. The Eagles entered their game against the lowly Panthers as massive favorites and exited with a narrow 22-16 escape, frustration from wide receivers boiling over and a potentially frayed relationship between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.
Of course, some surprises had happier outcomes. The Rams’ 44-42 win over the Bills was an upset, sure, but no neutral observer was upset watching one of the most aesthetically enjoyable offensive showcases in recent memory. I mean, Josh Allen did something no one’s done since 1954 … and lost! That’s how good Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams were. One moment, you’re left speechless by Allen’s ridiculous skills, the next, you’re wondering how Stafford made that throw, or Nacua or Kupp made that catch or Williams made that run.
That game as a whole was one of many things we liked in Week 14. Here’s more:
Five things we liked
1. Sam Darnold lets it rip, and Justin Jefferson breaks out
Entering Week 14, Justin Jefferson has been excellent this season. But we hadn’t gotten that true “Justin Jefferson is unstoppable” game. From 2020-24, he had 16 games of at least 100 yards and a touchdown. Only Randy Moss and Lance Alworth have more in their first four campaigns. But this season, Jefferson had just one such game, and it came back in Week 2.
Then came Sunday: seven receptions, 132 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-21 romp over the Falcons. Yes, it helps that Jefferson played Atlanta, but this was Jefferson at his finest, finding pockets of space in the middle of the field. On targets between the numbers, Jefferson had six catches (tying a season high) for 111 yards (second most this season).
I mentioned the Falcons’ secondary struggles, and I have to admit one example — to Jefferson’s benefit — is truly hilarious.
The throw ended up being very easy. Sam Darnold’s escape before the throw was anything but, and Darnold deserves a ton of credit for his high-difficulty acumen this year.
Darnold is tied with Josh Allen for the league lead with 29 of Pro Football Focus’ big-time throws. On Sunday, he had four big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays, the best ratio of his career. With Jefferson and Jordan Addison — who actually one-upped Jefferson in catches (eight), yards (133) and touchdowns (three) — at wide receiver, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, Aaron Jones at running back and Kevin O’Connell pulling the strings, Darnold is playing some terrific ball.
2. Joe Burrow extending plays
Joe Burrow isn’t an overwhelming athlete like Josh Allen, nor a huge guy tough to bring down like Justin Herbert, nor a super explosive, slippery runner like Lamar Jackson. But he does an excellent job extending plays, navigating or escaping muddy pockets and finding teammates downfield. On Monday night, Burrow went 10 of 13 for 130 yards on throws that took three or more seconds. It’s his best completion percentage and his second-most completions on said throws this year.
And it’s not like Burrow is just looking for Ja’Marr Chase. On Monday, those 10 completions went to five different receivers.
This season, Burrow ranks tied for second in touchdowns passing (12) and fourth in passer rating (106.8) when he takes more than three seconds to throw. He has a very good sense of where and when to move to extend plays effectively, a major — if underappreciated — part of his game.
3. 49ers look like themselves
The 49ers of this season haven’t resembled the 49ers we’ve come to know. It’s not just because many players themselves are unfamiliar — Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw and others have missed time — but the style. The feel. The 49ers normally impose their will on both sides like a machine. We just haven’t seen that much this year.
That changed Sunday. The 49ers outgained the Bears 319-4 (!!!) — no, not a typo — in first-half yards during an eventual 38-13 romp.
The 49ers racked up seven sacks, with pressure coming from all over the place. On offense, San Francisco generated 0.09 expected points added per run, its second best all season, and scored a season-high three touchdowns on the ground. Isaac Guerendo even made a McCaffrey-esque downfield catch, the second-deepest reception by a 49ers running back this year!
It wasn’t just that the 49ers snapped a three-game losing streak, but how they did it.
4. The Lions’ fourth-down mindset
The Lions went for it on fourth down five times in Thursday’s 34-31 win over the Packers. They converted four times. Since Dan Campbell became coach, the Lions lead the NFL in fourth-down attempts and conversions by a wide margin.
This is where we need to distinguish “aggression” from the actual math. In our work Slack channel, my colleague Jared Dubin had two really good points:
- It can be just as risky to give the other team the ball as it is to try to keep it … if not more so.
- If we called punts “turnovers,” people would be more approving of going for fourth downs. Heck, maybe the world as a whole would be a better place.
Sure, punting isn’t the worst thing that can happen. Anyone will concede that. But it’s really, really, really far away from the best thing that can happen, especially in the correct fourth-down circumstances. That’s why ESPN’s win probability model actually supported the Lions going for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 31 (they got stopped).
I think optics play a role here, too. The Lions getting stuffed deep in their own territory didn’t “look” good, and it looked even worse when the Packers scored four plays later. But coaches would be better off if they didn’t care about how things “look.” The math said it was the right play. Moreover, Campbell understands that the worst thing that can happen if his team fails there is Green Bay scores a touchdown and takes a 28-24 lead early in the fourth quarter. Should that really scare him off, especially considering how good his offense is? The Lions scored not once but twice more.
In a similar vein to how I liked the Ravens going for a fourth-and-1 at their own 19 a few weeks ago, I like that Campbell not only trusts his offense to succeed, but, more importantly, to bounce back if it fails.
Later in the game, the Lions sealed the game by going for — and converting — a fourth-and-1 at the Green Bay 21. This one actually was unnecessarily aggressive considering the time remaining, the tied score and the field position. But guess what? This is Detroit’s identity. It converted, and it won.
5. Puka Nacua does the impossible
I have pretty good vision, with the optometrist test results to prove it. I thought this Puka Nacua catch was out by a mile.
I’m a writer, not a scientist. I don’t know if this is defying physics or gravity or inertia or what. But it’s special, and it’s very much worthy of being featured in this weekly spot.
6. (BONUS!) Bryan Bresee gets up
Here’s an extra thing we liked, and I’m bringing it to your attention, because unlike Bills-Rams, Saints-Giants probably was not near the top of your must-watch list. But Bryan Bresee doing this to clinch a Saints win deserves a spot here:
That is a 6-foot5, 305-pound man. Plays like his and Nacua’s are reminders that NFL players are real-life superheroes.
Five things we didn’t like
1. Amani Oruwariye’s mistake
It’s a bummer to have to put this on here. Hindsight is 20-20, and yes, it’s Oruwariye’s job to not touch this ball. Everyone else seemed to know to leave it alone. In fact, you can even see Marist Liufau (No. 35) signaling it. But in the moment, with the ball right there, that’s much easier said than done.
This is a guy who didn’t play a game last year, bounced around a couple of places, came to the Cowboys shortly before the season began and was thrust into a bigger role than expected due to injuries. Then Oruwariye suffered an injury himself, taking a knee to the spine in Week 8. Playing for a team with its season quickly slipping away, Oruwariye worked his way back and was activated just hours before this game, only to make a devastating mistake, one that he took hard and his teammates supported him through.
Oruwariye didn’t take questions after the game, but he’ll have to, eventually. This is a good reminder that players are humans, too. They make mistakes. They are trying their best at their job — nothing more, nothing less, even if it’s on a much larger stage than yours or mine.
2. The Panthers’ unforced procedural mistakes
I have really wanted to get Bryce Young in the other half of this column for weeks. He is playing outstanding football. He looks like Alabama Bryce Young in his processing, his accuracy and, most impressively, his improvisation. I mean, this is one of the best plays I’ve seen from any quarterback this season.
His future in Carolina looked very bleak weeks ago. Now, he looks like a legitimate part of a rebuild that has some hope, even as losses mount.
There are many areas the Panthers have to improve, but the basic stuff is an absolute must. The Panthers had two delay-of-game penalties, including an absolute back-breaker, making a fourth-and-4 a fourth-and-9 with under a minute left. Carolina couldn’t call a timeout because it had burned all three timeouts already, including one to prevent a delay of game.
The Panthers have 10 delay-of-game penalties this season, most in the league. The team in second — the Giants with nine — is not the type of company you want to keep. Rookie head coach Dave Canales and Young, in his second year, must get this figured out.
3. Jets find a way to lose
Don’t take it from me. Take it from Garrett Wilson, who said those exact words. The Jets — who were eliminated from playoff contention with the loss, the 14th straight season they won’t go to the postseason — truly outdid themselves this time, though.
With just over a minute left, the Jets were at the Dolphins’ 38, tied 23-23 and facing third-and-21. They needed yards to get into more comfortable field goal range, and if they got those yards, they didn’t want to go out of bounds, because the Dolphins had no timeouts.
Instead of a play over the middle of the field, Aaron Rodgers threw a 14-yard back shoulder pass to Davante Adams. Normally, it’s a great play — a signature Rodgers-Adams connection. But Adams got shoved out by Kendall Fuller, stopping the clock. Jeff Ulbrich said everyone knew to stay in bounds, and Adams blamed officials for not stopping the play.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. After the field goal gave the Jets a 26-23 lead, New York allowed a 45-yard return to Malik Washington and then 20 more yards before Jason Sanders’ field goal tied things up.
The Dolphins got the ball first in overtime, and ran the exact same play — back-to-back — to Jonnu Smith for gains of 20 and 14 yards to get moving. Five plays later, Smith brought in the game-winning score.
The Jets have blown at least a five-point fourth-quarter lead in three straight games. In those games, the Jets defense has faced eight drives in the fourth quarter/overtime. The results of those drives? Four touchdowns, three field goals, one punt, 39 points. Yikes.
4. Chiefs’ lack of pass rush
The box score shows the Chiefs with three sacks in their latest high-wire escape act, a 19-17 walk-off victory over the Chargers.
What it doesn’t show is Justin Herbert averaged 2.99 seconds to throw, the second longest of any Chiefs opponent this season, and it took the Chiefs an average of 2.7 seconds to apply pressure, tying their slowest this year.
Since Week 9, the Chiefs rank 19th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate. Chris Jones is excellent, but of the 229 pass rushers with at least 100 pass-rush snaps this season, only he and Josh Uche rank in the top 75 in pressure rate … and Uche was a healthy scratch against the Chargers.
Kansas City can afford this against a Chargers team without Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins and teams like the Raiders and Panthers — two other teams the Chiefs have squeaked by over the past three weeks. But against the league’s best teams (Josh Allen wasn’t sacked in the Bills’ win over the Chiefs, for example), the lack of a pass rush looms large.
5. Kadarius Toney’s tough quarter
Kadarius Toney played two fourth-quarter snaps in the Browns’ loss to the Steelers. Here they are.
We’ll file that under “less than ideal.” Coincidentally, the player Toney threw the ball at — Ben Skowronek — is the same player who recovered Toney’s fumble. Cleveland hasn’t won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003, and miscues like these (plus three turnovers and two missed field goals) are all too familiar.
