A new ABC News poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 52%-46%, but it is who is powering the shift toward Harris that is a problem for Republicans.
ABC News reported on their poll that found Harris leading 50%-46% among all voters and 52%-46% among likely voters:
Harris has 82% support among all Black people, rising to 93% among those who are likely voters. Trump, for his part, goes from 15% support among all Black people to 7% among those who are likely to vote. Harris also gains among liberals.
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That shift is driven largely by women: Harris’ support increases from 60% of all women younger than 40 to 73% of those in this age group who are likely to vote. Trump sees a corresponding drop in support, from 35% among all women younger than 40 to 24% of those likely to vote.
Harris has 82% support among all Black people, rising to 93% among those who are likely voters. Trump, for his part, goes from 15% support among all Black people to 7% among those who are likely to vote. Harris also gains among liberals.
The Harris coalition is starting to look like the Obama coalition but with more young women. Just like all other voters, younger women are not a monolithic group, but reproductive rights can’t be ignored as a key issue among many of these voters.
The African-American Trump support mirage appears to be evaporating.
Younger voters are overwhelmingly repulsed by Trump, so the notion in earlier polls that he was leading President Biden with younger voters appears to have been inaccurate.
Trump received 46% of the vote in 2016. Trump received 46% of the vote in 2020, and in the ABC poll, Trump is at 46% support with likely voters.
Donald Trump is not going to win the popular vote or a majority of the electorate. Trump has been at 46% support nationally for eight years. Forty-six percent appears to be Trump’s ceiling as a candidate.
If Democrats and Democratic leaners vote, Donald Trump will not be able to win the election. Trump’s best hope was when Biden was in the race, women, black voters, and young people were tuned out of the election.
These key members of the Democratic coalition are excited about Kamala Harris, and if they turn out, the ex-president will lose.
On the eve of the Harris/Trump debate, the electorate is becoming clearer, and the demographics don’t favor Trump and his party.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
