The 2024 WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx is all even at 1-1 as we head to Minneapolis for a pivotal Game 3 on Wednesday night. Will the Lynx bounce back from a Game 2 defeat and defend homecourt? Or will the Liberty carry their momentum on the road and take the lead in the series for the first time?
Ahead of Wednesday night’s action, here are three big questions that will determine the outcome of Game 3.
Can the Lynx get off to a better start?
In Game 1, it took the Liberty exactly six minutes to build a double-digit lead, and they were up by 13 at the end of the first quarter. In Game 2, the Liberty needed 9:16 to go up by double figures, and they led by 10 after the first.
Over the first two games, the Liberty are a combined 25 of 42 from the field in the first quarter and have hit 10 3-pointers. The 32 points the Liberty scored in Game 1 were the most the Lynx have allowed in a first quarter all season long, and the the 31 points they scored in Game 2 were tied for the second-most the Lynx have given up in the opening frame.
As impressive as the Lynx’s comebacks have been, it’s simply not sustainable to keep falling in a double-digit hole every game.
“I’m disappointed that we let it get to 17,” Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve said about their big deficit after Game 2. “I’m more disappointed in that. I’m more than disappointed, I’m pissed that that happened again.”
Minnesota’s own offense was actually very solid to begin both games, but they need to be much better on the defensive end. The good news is that they’ve proven they can be. They had the best defense in the league this season and there have been large stretches in both games where the Liberty have turned the ball over repeatedly and really struggled to create open looks.
The Lynx will need to be more physical and attuned to detail right from the opening tip in Game 3. It would also help to take care of the ball. They have eight first-quarter turnovers in the first two games, which have turned into easy points for the Liberty.
Was Laney-Hamilton’s Game 2 a mirage?
This has been a frustrating season for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who was limited to 28 games in the regular season due to a knee injury that required a minor surgical procedure. She then had a scary collision with All-Star center Jonquel Jones late in the regular season, and while she didn’t end up missing any time down the stretch, it is clear her knee is not 100%.
That has been especially obvious in the playoffs. Liberty coach Sandy Brondello has generally used her in short bursts, primarily as a key defensive cog. On the offensive end, Laney-Hamilton scored in double figures just once in the first two rounds. Entering the Finals, she was averaging six points, three rebounds and 2.8 assists on 29.2% shooting overall, including 3 of 20 from behind the arc.
Game 1 was more of the same, as Laney-Hamilton had five points on 2 of 7 from the field, and was barely on the floor down the stretch of regulation and in overtime.
In Game 2, the former All-Star finally delivered. She went off for 20 points, her highest-scoring game of the playoffs, and made 4 of 6 attempts from behind the arc — as many 3-pointers as she has made in the Liberty’s first seven playoff games combined. Her triple with 3:21 remaining, which put the Liberty up by five, was arguably the biggest shot of the entire game.
It’s no surprise that the Liberty won behind a big Laney-Hamilton outing. Between the regular season and playoffs, they are 17-2 when she hit double digits and 21-8 otherwise. The big question is whether she’s healthy enough to do it again. If she can give the Liberty 10-12 points a night the rest of the series, that’s a massive swing in their favor. If she goes back to being a non-factor on offense, that’s one less player for the Lynx to worry about.
Will the Lynx get Collier more involved?
Napheesa Collier was the best player on the court in the Lynx’s Game 1 win, but she was unable to make the same impact in Game 2. She finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and three assists — fine numbers — but she only took 12 shots, turned it over seven times and had four fouls.
The Lynx’s egalitarian system is a major reason for their sucess, and Collier has never been one to force her own offense. (In 178 career regular season and playoff games, she’s taken 20 field goal attempts just 18 times.) But if they want to win Game 3, and this series, the Lynx need to play more through Collier, and she needs to be more aggressive when she does have the ball.
There were three different stretches in the second half of Game 2 where she went five-plus minutes without a field goal attempt. Foul trouble played a role, as she had to sit out the end of the third quarter, and so did the Liberty’s defensive approach. But regardless of the circumstances, there shouldn’t be a single period of that length where your best player doesn’t take a shot.
After Collier cut the deficit to two points with a layup at the 5:36 mark of the fourth quarter, she didn’t take another attempt. In fact, she barely touched the ball the rest of the way as the Liberty went on a 14-2 run to secure the win. Here’s a look at the Lynx’s final 10 possessions.
|
1 |
No |
Turnover |
|
2 |
Yes |
Turnover |
|
3 |
No |
Made layup |
|
4 |
No |
Miss |
|
5 |
Yes |
Miss |
|
6 |
No |
Turnover |
|
7 |
No |
Miss |
|
8 |
Yes |
Miss |
|
9 |
Yes |
Miss |
|
10 |
No |
Turnover |
All told, Collier touched the ball for about nine seconds in the final 5:36, and only one of those touches — when she kept a loose ball alive with a tap — was even somewhat significant. Here, watch for yourself:
The Lynx need more from Collier in Game 3, and she needs her teammates to do a better job getting her the ball.
