2024 U.S. Open picks, odds: Surprising weekend predictions by PGA golf model that's nailed 12 majors

The 2024 U.S. Open is heading for a thrilling weekend with Ludvig Aberg atop the leaderboard at 5 under and six golfers, including several other big names, within two strokes. Bryson DeChambeau, the 2020 U.S. Open winner, is among the group of three golfers who are one shot back, joining Patrick Cantlay and Thomas Detry. Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau and Matthieu Pavon are two shots off the lead, while PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele is still within striking distance at 1 under.

Aberg is the +333 favorite in the 2024 U.S. Open odds, followed by DeChambeau (4-1), McIlroy (9-2), Cantlay (9-1), Schauffele (12-1), Finau (14-1), Detry (16-1) and Hideki Matsuyama at 16-1. Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks for the weekend, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now with the U.S. Open 2024 approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open over the weekend: Cantlay, one of the top favorites, stumbles and finishes outside of the top five. With Xander Schauffele winning the PGA Championship, Cantlay is now one of the best current golfers without a major win. He’s currently ranked ninth in the world and has been as high as No. 3.

He’s just a shot off the lead, but that’s largely because of a sizzling 65 in the first round. He wasn’t able to replicate that form in the second, shooting a 71, and the model is projecting that he won’t keep pace with some of the other big names up top as it has found better values to utilize in 2024 U.S. Open bets. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Hideki Matsuyama, a 16-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

With three career top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open, Matsuyama has been a regular contender in this event. He carries a ton of momentum into the weekend as well after shooting a bogey-free 66 on Friday. He’s finished T12 or better five of his past seven PGA events overall, including a win at the Genesis Invitational, so McClure’s model recommends him for 2024 U.S. Open bets heading into the weekend. See who else to back here.

How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.

2024 U.S. Open odds, weekend favorites 

Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here

Ludvig Aberg +333
Bryson DeChambeau 4-1
Rory McIlroy 9-2
Patrick Cantlay 9-1
Xander Schauffele 12-1
Tony Finau 14-1
Thomas Detry 16-1
Hideki Matsuyama 16-1
Tyrrell Hatton 45-1
Matthieu Pavon 45-1
Corey Conners 50-1
Tom Kim 55-1
Scottie Scheffler 66-1
Akshay Bhatia 80-1
Sam Burns 80-1
Russell Henley 100-1
Billy Horschel 110-1

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