Florida Derby winner Fierceness will try to end the drought of favorites in the Run for the Roses when he leaves the starting gate in the 2024 Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. No post-time favorite has won the Kentucky Derby since 2018, when Justify won the race at nearly 3-1 odds en route to winning the Triple Crown. Since then, favorites have finished second twice, third twice, and fourth once. This year Fierceness is the 5-2 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds. Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone is the 3-1 second choice in the 20-horse 2024 Kentucky Derby field. The latest 2024 Kentucky Derby weather forecast is calling for a 25% chance of rain and a high around 80.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.
Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders’ Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.
Yu also has tremendous handicapping chops. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager two years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.
Yu enters this year’s Kentucky Derby on a roll. She correctly called National Treasure to win the Pegasus World Cup. In the month leading up to the Kentucky Derby, she predicted Stronghold’s upset win in the Santa Anita Derby and smashed the exacta in the Apple Blossom Handicap.
For the first leg of the Triple Crown, Yu has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made her picks and constructed her best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is fading Fierceness, even though he is the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. Fierceness’s performance in the Florida Derby was the most impressive of any three-year-old this season, but he’ll have his work cut out to replicate that performance at Churchill Downs. He prefers to be near the front, but he’ll have a long trip coming from the No. 16 gate.
Sired by City of Light out of the Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella, Fierceness has unquestionable talent after his wins at Gulfstream Park and at Santa Anita last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, he’s also been inconsistent, finishing seventh in the Champagne Stakes last October and third as the 1-5 favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes earlier this year. It can be perilous betting the favorite against a 20-horse field and Yu is avoiding using Fierceness as an outright winner on Saturday. See who else to fade here.
Another curveball: Yu is high on Just a Touch, even though he’s a longshot at 10-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds 2024. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Trained by Brad Cox, Just a Touch has one win and two seconds in three career starts. He is coming off a runner-up finish to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Yu likes that Just a Touch has improved with every start. He earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure when winning his six-furlong debut and improved that figure to a 90 in the Gotham Stakes. His Blue Grass effort earned a 96 Beyer. “This is the kind of year that a horse with one lifetime win can capture the blanket of roses with the right trip,” Yu told SportsLine. You can see all of Yu’s 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu’s top pick is a horse who “will be happy to get the added ground” at Churchill Downs. She’s also high on a massive double-digit longshot who “blew my doors off.” She is including these horses in her 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
