Steve Asmussen has the most wins of any North American horse trainer in history, but what he doesn’t have is a victory in the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen is hoping that dubious distinction ends at the 2024 Kentucky Derby, which takes place on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs. Asmussen is 0-for-25 with Kentucky Derby starters, and his 26th is scheduled to be Track Phantom, who won the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes. The horse is a mid-shot, according to the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, at 20-1 in the 20-horse 2024 Kentucky Derby field.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite is Fierceness (5-2), who is saddled by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses that could factor into plenty of 2024 Kentucky Derby bets include Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone (3-1) and Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom (8-1). The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. While Florida Derby winners have had recent success at Churchill Downs, Fierceness has another obstacle to overcome. The favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018, so it has taken a special horse to deliver as the favorite in this race.
Fierceness has struggled with consistency during his young career, failing to string together back-to-back victories. He finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes last October and was third in the Holy Bull in February. Demling knows Fierceness has the talent to win the Kentucky Derby 2024, but his inconsistency cannot be overlooked, especially since he has the shortest odds in the field. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he’s a 20-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Resilience has won two of his three races and is coming off a 2 1/4-length victory in the Wood Memorial. Trainer Bill Mott added blinkers to the horse for that race and has already been inducted into the Hall of Fame, has a Kentucky Derby victory under his belt with Country House (2019), and has seen two of his last four Kentucky Derby starters finish in the money.
Resilience’s pedigree may even surpass his connections. His sire, Into Mischief, has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, so far, Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). Meanwhile, Resilience’s grandsire, Smart Strike, also has two Kentucky Derby winners, Mine That Bird (2009) and Rich Strike (2022). That means every Derby winner from 2019 to 2022 has a connection via either trainer or blood relative to Resilience. Add in that 11 horses that have won the Wood Memorial have then gone on to win at Churchill Downs, and you can see why Demling is high on Resilience. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
