Hideki Matsuyama was able to fend off a crowded leaderboard in Memphis last weekend to open the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which continues this week with the 2024 BMW Championship. Matsuyama was a 30-1 longshot last week, but his price has been shortened to 18-1 in the 2024 BMW Championship odds. He is still sitting well behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is the +320 favorite on the PGA odds board. Xander Schauffele (+650), Rory McIlroy (+1000) and Collin Morikawa (+1200) are among the other BMW Championship contenders.
Scheffler won the gold medal in Paris and finished fourth last week to continue his impressive season. Given his short odds for this week’s tournament at Castle Pines, how should you approach Scheffler with your 2024 BMW Championship bets? Before locking in your 2024 BMW Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and this year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now with the BMW Championship 2024 field set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 BMW Championship golf predictions
One surprise: McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the top favorites, does not crack the top five this week. McIlroy is coming off a rough week in Memphis, closing with rounds of 73, 74 and 74 over the final three days. He finished second to last overall of the golfers who made the cut for the weekend, and it was statistically the second-worst week of his career in driving.
McIlroy also had his third-worst week of putting in terms of strokes gained, so he is not in good form heading into the second event of the playoffs. He has gone more than a decade since his last major victory, bogeying three of his final four holes at the U.S. Open earlier this season. McIlroy proceeded to fall just short of a medal at the Olympics, so the model cannot trust him to meet expectations this week.
The model has also examined where Schauffele finishes. Schauffele nearly completed one of the largest comebacks in PGA Tour history at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, entering the clubhouse with a share of the lead on Sunday after starting the day nine shots behind the leader. Hideki Matsuyama ultimately came up with some winning shots on the final few holes, but Schauffele maintained the momentum he had been playing with all season.
The World No. 2 picked up his first career major victory at the PGA Championship in May before adding a win at the Open Championship last month. He has made the cut in all 19 events he has played in, posting 13 top-10 finishes. However, he has some of the shortest odds in the field, so there could be other golfers who have more value. The model just locked in its Xander Schauffele BMW Championship picks here.
How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks
The model has revealed where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele finish, along with identifying three golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2024 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the BMW Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected BMW Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open.
2024 BMW Championship odds, field
Get full 2024 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +320
Xander Schauffele +650
Rory McIlroy +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Viktor Hovland +1800
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Corey Conners +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Wyndham Clark +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Cameron Young +4000
Billy Horschel +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Aaron Rai +4000
Russell Henley +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Shane Lowry +4500
Sahith Theegala +4500
Jason Day +4500
Byeong Hun An +5000
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Robert MacIntyre +5500
Brian Harman +6000
Keegan Bradley +6000
Alex Noren +6500
Will Zalatoris +6500
Taylor Pendrith +6500
Max Greyserman +6500
Denny McCarthy +7000
Thomas Detry +7500
Si Woo Kim +7500
Sepp Straka +7500
Tom Hoge +8000
Nick Dunlap +8000
Max Homa +8000
Eric Cole +8000
Cam Davis +9000
Austin Eckroat +9000
J.T. Poston +11000
Chris Kirk +12000
Adam Hadwin +12000
Stephan Jaeger +12000
Matthieu Pavon +15000
